ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Public Health
Sec. Injury Prevention and Control
Volume 13 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2025.1638277
Global, regional, and national burden of forearm fracture from 1990 to 2021: a study based on GBD 2021
Provisionally accepted
- 1Shanghai Tongji Hospital, School of Medicine, Tongji University, Shanghai, China
- 2Shanghai 6th Peoples Hospital Affiliated to Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, China
- 3Shanghai Jiao Tong University Medical School Affiliated Ruijin Hospital, Shanghai, China
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Objective: To comprehensively examine the regional, national, and global burden and trends of forearm fractures from 1990 to 2021. Methods: The incidence and years lived with disability (YLDs), with uncertainty interval (UI), for forearm fractures from 1990 to 2021 were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease 2021. The temporal, geographical, and demographic burden of forearm fractures was assessed, as well as the leading causes. Finally, a decomposition analysis was performed. Results: In 1990, the incidence number of forearm fractures globally was 26,098,810 (95% UI: 20,967,988 to 32,372,267), which increased to 31,905,396 (95% UI: 25,403,829 to 39,982,115) in 2021. The age-standardised incidence rate was 483.28 (95% UI: 387.42 to 599.37) in 1990 and decreased to 402.35 (95% UI: 319.86 to 505.21) in 2021. In 1990, the global number of YLDs due to forearm fractures was 144,166 (95% UI: 87,129 to 229,017), which increased to 205,031 (95% UI: 126,061 to 320,235) in 2021. The age-standardised YLDs rate was 2.98 (95% UI: 1.82 to 4.7) in 1990, which decreased to 2.51 (95% UI: 1.54 to 3.93) in 2021. Females showed a higher burden than males, and the incidence rate of forearm fractures exhibited a bimodal distribution, peaking in youth and older adulthood. Recently, the disease burden presented a challenge due to the ageing population. Falls were the most prominent cause of forearm fractures, followed by road injuries and exposure to mechanical forces. Conclusions: Forearm fractures have increased in incidence and YLDs number since 1990, particularly among females. The incidence rate follows a bimodal distribution, with peaks in youth and older adulthood. The age-related burden has progressively shifted toward older populations, reflecting trends in global ageing. Falls remain the leading cause of forearm fractures, with the highest burden observed among elderly females.
Keywords: Epidemiology, Incidence, YLDs, GBD 2021, Forearm fracture
Received: 30 May 2025; Accepted: 09 Jul 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Chen, Zhang, Li, Zhou, Xia, Li and Yang. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence: Cheng Chen, Shanghai Tongji Hospital, School of Medicine, Tongji University, Shanghai, China
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