Analysis of Influencing Factors of AIDS Epidemic in Kunming Based on PCA-GWR Method

LiangTing Zheng^1,2Bin Liao³Yi Li³Jun Lian³Jingying Wamg³Yanli Ma³Ruilin Fong³Wenying Hu²Xianfu Bai^1*

• ¹Yunnan Earthquake Agency, Kunming, China
• ²Yunnan Normal University, Kunming, China
• ³Kunming Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Kunming, China

As of 2024, an estimated 40.8 million people worldwide were living with HIV, making HIV/AIDS one of the most pressing global public health challenges. Accurate identification of the factors shaping the HIV/AIDS epidemic is essential for developing targeted prevention and control strategies. Accordingly, this study uses Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) to examine spatially varying associations between HIV/AIDS prevalence and three domains—socioeconomic conditions, educational attainment, and healthcare capacity—using Kunming, China, as a case study. The results indicate that: (1) the effects of socioeconomic conditions, educational attainment, and healthcare capacity on HIV/AIDS prevalence exhibit significant spatial heterogeneity across Kunming; (2) in the northern part of Kunming—particularly Dongchuan District, Luquan County, Xundian County, and Fumin County—higher prevalence is largely associated with the combined influence of lower economic development and limited educational attainment, with economic development negatively correlated with prevalence and lower educational levels positively correlated with infection rates; and (3) HIV/AIDS prevalence is also related to the level of healthcare services, which is generally negatively correlated with prevalence—i.e., better healthcare conditions are associated with lower infection rates—although areas with more advanced healthcare systems may show higher detection and reporting. These findings provide spatially explicit evidence to inform the design and implementation of targeted intervention measures by relevant authorities.