Long-Term Spatial-Temporal Evolution of Hepatitis C Burden in Eastern China: A Retrospective Case Analysis from Wuxi City

Huan DingSong GaoShipeng ZhangShiya ShenQi Zhang^*Zhuping Xu^*

• Wuxi Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Wuxi, China

Background: Hepatitis C is an inflammation of the liver caused by the hepatitis C virus (HCV) and represents a major public health challenge. This study aimed to explore the epidemiological characteristics and spatiotemporal distribution of hepatitis C in Wuxi City, a developed and low-epidemic area of eastern China, from 2007 to 2021. Methods: Data were obtained from the Chinese Information System for Disease Control and Prevention, while genotype information was derived from a retrospective survey. Statistical analyses were conducted using SPSS software to identify characteristic differences. Joinpoint regression analysis was applied to examine long-term temporal trends, and the concentration degree was used to quantify seasonal intensity. Kernel density and hotspot analyses were applied to identify spatial distribution patterns and clusters. Results: A total of 4771 cases were recorded, with an average annual incidence rate of 5.44 per 100,000 population. The incidence was significantly higher in males than in females (odds ratio=1.49, 2=144.58, P < 0.05). The incidence of HCV infection increased progressively with age. Genotype 1b (74.5%) was the most prevalent, followed by genotype 3 (15.2%), with subtype 3b being dominant. Sex and age were significantly associated with variations in genotype distribution (both P < 0.001). During the study period, the incidence rate increased from 2.18 to 9.15 per 100,000 population, with an average annual percentage change of 10.50% (95% confidence interval: 6.42%– 14.74%). No distinct seasonal pattern was observed, with a concentration degree (M) of 0.095. Spatially, HCV cases were mainly concentrated in the city center, and the hotspot areas showed little change across the three study periods. Conclusions: The incidence of HCV in Wuxi City has increased steadily from 2007 to 2021, with genotypes 1b and 3 being predominant. Spatial clustering was mainly concentrated in urban centers, highlighting the need for targeted prevention and control strategies to support the goal of eliminating HCV as a public health threat by 2030.