ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Public Health
Sec. Injury Prevention and Control
Volume 13 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2025.1672422
Global, Regional, and National Burden of Falls from 1990 to 2021, with Predictions to 2040: A Systematic Analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
Provisionally accepted
- 1Third Xiangya Hospital, Central South University, Changsha, China
- 2Central South University Xiangya School of Nursing, Changsha, China
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Background Falls are the second leading cause of unintentional injury-related deaths globally and the primary cause of accidental injuries among the elderly. This study provides a comprehensive analysis of the burden of falls. Methods Data on falls were extracted from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021. We evaluated the impact of age, sex, risk factors, and the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) on the burden of falls and calculated the Estimated annual percent change (EAPC). Two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) was employed to assess causal relationships between risk factors and falls, while the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was used to predict fall incidence trends from 2022 to 2040. Results In 2021, the global prevalence of falls was 6,455.4 cases per 100,000 people, reflecting an 11.3% decline since 1990. Women aged 55 and above exhibited higher prevalence rates. Fall incidence and prevalence showed a positive correlation with SDI, whereas mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were negatively correlated. MR analysis confirmed that lower heel bone mineral density (BMD) and smoking initiation significantly increase the risk of falls. Projections indicate that the global age-standardized incidence rate of falls will remain high from 2022 to 2040. Conclusion The study underscores a progressively increasing global burden of falls, emphasizing the urgent need for healthcare systems to address the impacts of population aging and other societal determinants on fall-related risks..Targeted interventions should include:Low BMD prevention programs and Smoking cessation initiatives.
Keywords: fall, Global burden of disease, Mendelian randomization, prediction, Bayesian age-period-cohort
Received: 03 Oct 2025; Accepted: 13 Oct 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Xiang, Qing, 石, Liang and Yao. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence: Zhong Zhu Qing, zhongzhuqing@126.com
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