ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Public Health
Sec. Substance Use Disorders and Behavioral Addictions
Volume 13 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2025.1680854
Analysis and Prediction of Disease Burden Related to Opioid Use Disorder in China Based on GBD 2021
Provisionally accepted
- 1First Hospital of Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, China
- 2Research Centre for Clinical Medicine, First Hospital of Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, China
- 3Day Surgery Centre, First Hospital of Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, China
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Opioid use disorder (OUD) presents a significant public health issue worldwide, and understanding its disease burden is crucial for developing effective prevention and treatment strategies. This study aims to analyze the disease burden of OUD in China from 1990 to 2021, assess temporal trends, and project future patterns up to 2036. Data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD 2021) study were used to evaluate prevalence, incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Joinpoint regression assessed trends over time, while an age-period-cohort (APC) model examined the effects of age, period, and cohort. Health inequality was analyzed through the association between OUD burden and the Sociodemographic Index (SDI), and an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was applied to forecast the disease burden for the next 15 years. Compared to 1990, China's OUD burden declined by 2021, particularly in age-standardized mortality (EAPC = -5.26), whereas the global burden continued to increase. In China, the highest burden was observed among females, individuals aged 15– 24 years, and recent birth cohorts. The association between DALYs and SDI weakened over time. Projections indicate that the OUD burden will rise again in the next 15 years. These findings underscore the need for targeted prevention and early intervention strategies to mitigate the growing burden of OUD in China and support global public health efforts.
Keywords: disease burden, Opioid drugs, drugs use disorder, Anesthesia, Public Health, Epidemiology
Received: 06 Aug 2025; Accepted: 14 Oct 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Wang, Liu, Wan, Liang, Zhao, Wang, Ma, Chen and Lv. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence: Yaolong Chen, chevidence@lzu.edu.cn
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