ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Public Health
Sec. Environmental Health and Exposome
The Causal Effect of New Energy Logistics Vehicle Policies on Respiratory Disease Mortality Rate
Provisionally accepted
- 1School of Economics and Management, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou, China
- 2Commerce Department, Xuzhou Vocational Technology Academy of Finance & Economics, Xuzhou, China
- 3Nanjing Institute of Technology, Nanjing, China
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Amid escalating global efforts to address climate change and persistent threats to public health, evaluating the health benefits of environmental policies is of growing significance. This study leverages the "Green Freight Distribution Demonstration Project" launched in 2018 as a quasi-natural experiment. Utilizing multi-city panel data from China spanning 2011 to 2024, it employs both a Difference-in-Differences (DID) model and a Double Machine Learning (DML) model to rigorously assess the causal impact of policies promoting new energy logistics vehicles on the mortality rate from respiratory diseases among residents. The findings reveal that the policy significantly reduces respiratory disease mortality rate in pilot cities, a conclusion that remains robust across multiple sensitivity analyses. In terms of mechanisms, the policy directly increases the market penetration of new energy logistics vehicles while reducing the share of the secondary industry (SI). Indirectly, it facilitates the low-carbon transition of urban industrial structures, significantly lowering sulfur dioxide (SO₂) concentrations and improving overall air quality, thus contributing to better public health outcomes. Furthermore, the health benefits demonstrate notable heterogeneity: the mortality reduction effect is more pronouncedl in cities characterized by lower economic development, higher initial pollution levels, and limited medical resources. This study not only provides empirical evidence for quantifying the health dividends of environmental policies but also offers scientific guidance for optimizing green transportation initiatives and achieving integrated governance of environmental and public health goals.
Keywords: New energy logistics vehicles, Respiratory disease mortality rate, Air Quality, Double Machine Learning Model, transport
Received: 22 Sep 2025; Accepted: 27 Oct 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Zhang, Liu, Liu and Hou. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence: Xiaoran Hou, houxr@cumt.edu.cn
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