ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Public Health
Sec. Children and Health
Global trends and risk factors of chronic kidney disease in children and young adults from 1990 to 2021: a systematic analysis of Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
Provisionally accepted
- Nursing Department, Shanghai Sixth People's Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, China
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ABSTRACT Introduction: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is an important contributor to morbidity and mortality from non-communicable disease in children and young adults, but there is a lack of data on incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), risk factors, and trends in the population. This study aims to provide comprehensive estimates of CKD burden in children and young adults. Methods: We conducted aThe trend analysis based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021. Measures of burden in at global, SDI, and regional levels for children and young adults included incidence, mortality, and DALYs rates per 100,000 population due to CKD, as well as the attributable risks of death and DALYs, the annual percentage change (APC), and average annual percentage change (AAPC). We also investigated the association between CKD burden and socio-demographic index (SDI), and predicted the incidence from 2022 to 2050. Results: Globally, from 1990 to 2021, children with CKD demonstrated declining trends in incidence, mortality, and DALYs, with AAPC AAPCs of -0.095, -1.925, and -1.820, respectively; however, the incidence rate did not change significantly, though it has a negative trend overall (AAPCs: -0.095). Conversely, all three metrics showed upward trajectories in young adults, with AAPC values AAPCs of 0.941, 0.256, and 0.187. The relationship between incidence and SDI exhibited an inverse U-shaped correlation, while demonstrating significant negative associations with mortality and DALYs. Notably, region-specific disparities emerged in attributable risk factors for mortality and DALYs among young adults. Higher SDI regions displayed greater proportional contributions from high fasting plasma glucoseHFPG, high body-mass indexHBMI, diets high in processed meat, and red meat. Projections for 2022-2050 suggest: a continued reduction in children children's CKD incidence versus a continued increase in young adults. Conclusion: The global burden of CKD shows divergent trends across age groups, with projected increases in young adults contrasting with declining rates in children. Lower SDI regions demonstrate a disproportionately higher CKD burdenburden of CKD.
Keywords: CKD, GBD, Children, young adults, Epidemiology
Received: 31 Aug 2025; Accepted: 24 Nov 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Yapeng, Yan, Qiuting, Qunfeng and Nina. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence: Zhang Nina
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