Third-child fertility intentions and influencing factors among female workers of reproductive age in Shandong under China's three-child policy1

Yanxia Qi¹Guiyun Wang¹Jinke Kuang¹Wenjing Xu¹Yingxin Zhang²Xiuzhen Mu³Jinnan Xiao^4*

• ¹Shandong Xiehe University, Jinan 250109, Shandong, People's Republic of China, Shandong, China
• ²The Second People's Hospital of Liaocheng, Liaocheng, China
• ³Taigong Primary School, zibo, China
• ⁴Central South University, Changsha, China

Background The persistent decline in global fertility rates, coupled with women’s growing professionalization, has led to low third-child fertility intentions among female workers, a common challenge across low-fertility countries. Objectives This study examined third-child fertility intentions and their influencing factors among reproductive-age female workers in Shandong Province, China. Methods Using snowball sampling, 1,350 female workers aged 20–49 years in Shandong Province, China were recruited through personal networks from April–May 2024 and referrals to ensure a diverse yet targeted sample. Based on the theory of planned behavior, we collected data on demographic characteristics, behavioral attitudes, subjective norms, and perceived control factors using a self-administered questionnaire distributed through a popular online survey platform. We used descriptive analysis, chi-squared tests, and binary logistic regression for data analysis. Results Only 10.3% of the study participants expressed intentions to have a third child. The logistic regression analysis showed that all examined variables—including demographic characteristics (age, residence, education level, monthly household income, and whether both spouses were only children), behavioral attitude factors ( the ideal number of children and career prospects), and perceived control factors (caregiver availability for a third child, type of workplace, and knowledge of the three-child policy)—were significantly associated with third-child fertility intentions (p < .05). In terms of subjective norms, the factors exhibited no statistically significant associations (p > .05). Conclusions Female workers face career–family conflicts and may avoid having a third child due to multiple factors. To achieve sustainable population development, China should intensify efforts to promote the three-child policy, clarify its benefits and implementation mechanisms, and address barriers to uptake, alongside expanding affordable quality public childcare, increasing childcare subsidies, and legislating family-friendly practices (e.g., flexible work) in private sectors. The study findings offer actionable insights for low-fertility regions with similar socio-cultural contexts, including other provinces in China and specific areas in East Asia.