ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Public Health
Sec. Public Mental Health
This article is part of the Research TopicEnvironmental Challenges and Public Health Inequality: Climate Change Impacts and Adaptive BehaviorsView all 4 articles
Intersecting Risks: A Longitudinal Analysis of Climate Exposure, Social Vulnerability, and Mental Health in a Large Urban County on the Gulf Coast of Texas, United States
Provisionally accepted
- 1Humana Integrated Health Systems Sciences Institute, University of Houston, Houston, United States
- 2Tilman J. Fertitta Family College of Medicine, University of Houston, Houston, United States
- 3Hurricane Resilience Research Institute, University of Houston, Houston, United States
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This study investigates the evolving intersection of social vulnerability, climate exposure, and mental health distress in Harris County, Texas, from 2014 to 2022, with projections through 2030. Using census tract-level data and integrating indicators from the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, climate exposure metrics, and mental health outcomes, we developed predictive models to forecast future trends. Results indicate a significant rise in overall social vulnerability—from a score of 8.16 in 2022 to 8.87 by 2030, driven by increasing poverty, extreme heat, flooding, and deteriorating mental health. Mental health distress is projected to escalate from 18.7.0% to 22.7% of the population, underscoring a growing public health burden. The study highlights the compounding risks faced by underserved communities and emphasizes the need for targeted planning, mental health workforce expansion, and adaptive infrastructure strategies. These findings offer critical insights for policymakers and public health officials aiming to mitigate future climate-related health disparities.
Keywords: Climate health, SVI, Mental Health, Projections & predictions, Texas (TX)
Received: 08 Sep 2025; Accepted: 05 Nov 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Adepoju, Xu, Tipton and Rifai. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence: Omolola E Adepoju, oadepoju@uh.edu
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