The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the career aspirations of adolescents in Romania: A longitudinal analysis

Adrian Hatos^1*Delia-Georgeta Bekesi¹Mirela Lăcrimioara Cosma¹Zsolt-Botond Bottyan¹Denisa Dobai¹Simina-Maria Miko²

• ¹University of Oradea, Oradea, Romania
• ²Centrul Județean de Resurse și Asistență Educațională Bihor, Oradea, Romania

This study explores the evolving landscape of career aspirations among Romanian eighth-grade students by analyzing survey data collected both before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Eighth-grade students were chosen for this study because they are at a critical educational crossroads, highly influenced by socio-economic and emotional factors, and their career aspirations, which evolved during the pandemic’s effects on education, social interaction, and economic uncertainty, can be tracked over time for a longitudinal analysis. The research has three main objectives: first, to assess whether during the pandemic career uncertainty increased, foundational career optimism (defined by educational commitment) and strategic career planning (defined by mobility intentions) of Romanian adolescents were modified during the pandemic; second, to identify shifts in the perceived status of desired occupations using the International Socio-Economic Index of Occupational Status (ISEI) and Standard International Occupational Prestige Scale (SIOPS); and third, to examine changes in students’ intentions to study or work abroad. To test the research hypotheses and address the limitations of existing studies, we adopted a longitudinal design. Specifically, we compared data from three waves of the MERPAS survey (Educational Monitor of Results, Practices, and Attitudes in Schools of Bihor), conducted among eighth-grade students (aged 13–15) in the Bihor County of Romania. The first wave was conducted before the pandemic (December 2018–January 2019), while the second and third waves took place during the pandemic, first at the height of restrictions in Romania (May–June 2021) and later shortly before their end (January–February 2022). The findings reveal an improvement in students’ clarity regarding their career goals, as indicated by a higher proportion of valid responses about their desired professions. Additionally, the average occupational status, measured by the ISEI and SIOPS scales, showed a slight but statistically significant increase during the pandemic. The data also indicates a notable decline in students’ intentions to pursue educational or professional opportunities abroad. These results can be theoretically framed using human capital theory, which suggests that career aspirations may increase during crises, a phenomenon linked to the lowering of opportunity costs of education and the relative health risks associated with certain occupations.