ORIGINAL RESEARCH article

Front. Sustain. Food Syst.

Sec. Land, Livelihoods and Food Security

Volume 9 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fsufs.2025.1561910

This article is part of the Research TopicFood Systems, Spatial Modelling, And PlanningView all 4 articles

Characterization of spatio-temporal evolution of grain production and identification of its heterogeneity drivers in Sichuan Province based on Geodetector and GWR models

Provisionally accepted
Huae  DangHuae DangYuanjie  DengYuanjie Deng*Yifeng  HaiYifeng HaiHang  ChenHang ChenWenjing  WangWenjing Wang
  • Sichuan University of Science and Engineering, Zigong, Sichuan, China

The final, formatted version of the article will be published soon.

Food security has become one of the central issues drawing global attention. Currently, the global food security situation is becoming increasingly urgent, profoundly impacting both China's economic development and social stability, while also bearing significant national strategic importance. This paper is based on county-level grain production data from Sichuan Province between 2000 and 2022. Firstly, it employs methods such as standard deviation ellipses, center of gravity shifts, and spatial autocorrelation analysis to explore the spatiotemporal evolution of grain production in Sichuan Province. Furthermore, the Geodetector and GWR models are applied to identify and quantify the key drivers affecting grain production in Sichuan Province, as well as their spatial heterogeneity. The study finds that: (1) grain production in Sichuan Province shows a fluctuating growth trend, with clear regional disparities in its spatial distribution; (2) The spatial distribution of grain production in Sichuan Province exhibits a positive correlation, with its spatial association gradually strengthening, while also displaying significant spatial differences and regional clustering; (3) In terms of detecting driving factors, actual cultivated land area of the year has a significant impact on grain production, with its influence becoming particularly prominent when interacting with other factors; (4) Regarding the spatial heterogeneity of driving factors, each driver shows distinct spatial differentiation characteristics. Cultivated land area, fertilizer usage, and rural electricity consumption all exert a significant positive effect on overall grain production, while other influencing factors generally have a negative impact. This study not only deepens the scientific understanding of the spatiotemporal evolution and driving mechanisms of grain production but also provides scientific evidence and policy recommendations for food security and sustainable agricultural development in Sichuan Province and similar regions.

Keywords: Sichuan Province1, grain production2, spatiotemporal evolution3, Geodetector4, Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR)5

Received: 16 Jan 2025; Accepted: 04 Jun 2025.

Copyright: © 2025 Dang, Deng, Hai, Chen and Wang. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.

* Correspondence: Yuanjie Deng, Sichuan University of Science and Engineering, Zigong, Sichuan, China

Disclaimer: All claims expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of their affiliated organizations, or those of the publisher, the editors and the reviewers. Any product that may be evaluated in this article or claim that may be made by its manufacturer is not guaranteed or endorsed by the publisher.