Assessment of the Effect of the Reward Policy for Major Grain-Producing Counties on County Governments' Incentives to Support Grain Production

XZ BA¹Xizhao Wang¹Xi Luo²Yu Zhong^1*

• ¹Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing, China
• ²Zhongnan University of Economics and Law, Wuhan, Hubei Province, China

Counties are the key areas of grain production in China, and it is essential to incentivize county governments to focus on grain production efforts to ensure the country's food security. Using countylevel data from 2000 to 2021, the effect of the reward policy for major grain-producing counties (RPMGC) on county governments' incentives to support grain production (CGISGP) was assessed using the difference-in-differences method. The results indicate that the implementation of RPMGC has significantly in-creased CGISGP, and this result remains robust after conducting parallel trend, placebo, and robustness tests. Further analysis reveals that this effect emerged in the first year following the policy's implementation and gradually diminished by the fifth year, and that the policy's impact is not sustained in the long term. The effect was more pronounced in counties with high bonus distribution coefficients, a large proportion of the primary sector, and significant financial pressure. It is necessary to promptly adjust and improve the RPMGC, accelerate the implementation of horizontal grain interest compensation, and strengthen the "endogenous motivation" of grain-producing counties.