Comprehensive database of land subsidence in 143 major coastal cities around the world: overview of issues, causes, and future challenges

Abstract

Subsidence refers to the gradual lowering or sudden sinking of the ground surface and is known to impact human lives in terms of damages to the infrastructures, utility lines, and buildings as well as changes in the surficial drainage systems and groundwater conditions. The impacts of land subsidence will be greater in the future, considering the sea level rise, population growth, intensification of coastal erosion and extreme events, as well as increase in flood risk or freshwater salinization, mostly in coastal cities. The main aim of this work is to provide an open-source, peer-reviewed, and comprehensive database identifying the main and secondary causes of land subsidence in 143 coastal cities. We highlight the potential impacts of subsidence that are still unknown in some at-risk cities and non-existence of mitigation measures. The database additionally shows that mitigation measures, specifically those addressing subsidence due to groundwater extraction, have proven successful in the past. The proposed database aims to increase the knowledge on the subsidence phenomenon and also global awareness of land subsidence issues among researchers, the scientific community, stakeholders, and policymakers in terms of urban planning and development.

1 Introduction

Land subsidence refers to the gradual lowering or sudden sinking of the ground as a result of natural and human-induced factors (Poland, 1984; Galloway and Burbey, 2011). Over the long-term duration, land subsidence could have severe impacts in terms of damages to infrastructures, utility lines, and buildings as well as changes in the natural surficial drainage systems (Barlow and Eric, 2010; Eggleston and Pope, 2013; Margat and Van der Gun, 2013; Schmidt, 2015), while the populations in the areas that may potentially be flooded are rising globally (Zhong et al., 2023). The natural and anthropic drivers of subsidence include sediment consolidation, peat oxidation, earthquakes, tectonics, karst phenomena, groundwater exploitation, hydrocarbon extraction, geothermal activities, mining of ore materials or tunneling, and building and infrastructure loads (Poland and Hamilton, 1984; Huang and Jiang, 2010; Margat and Van der Gun, 2013; Higgins et al., 2014; Minderhoud et al., 2015; Omoko et al., 2018; de Glopper and Ritzema, 2023).

The geological settings as well as anthropic activities in an area play important roles in land subsidence (Momotake, 1996; Galloway et al., 1999; Allis, 2000; Hu et al., 2004; Caramanna et al., 2008; Tularam and Krishna, 2009; Lorphensri et al., 2011; Tomás et al., 2014; Mastin et al., 2018; Solari et al., 2018; Loupasakis, 2020; Calabrese et al., 2021; Hamdani et al., 2021; Sarah et al., 2021; Satriyo, 2021; Budiyono et al., 2022; Kurniawan and Deviantari, 2022; Sadjadi, 2022). For instance, given its geological context, Italy is prone to slow natural subsidence phenomena that may be accelerated, especially along the coasts and in urbanized areas, by anthropogenic factors, i.e., groundwater overexploitation, urban expansion, and geothermal activities (Solari et al., 2018). Land subsidence is also attributable to multiple factors that may make it difficult to disentangle the contribution of one cause over another, since these vary highly over space and time (Poland and Hamilton, 1969). Methods to mitigate subsidence include regulation, reduction, or abandonment of groundwater extraction, artificial recharge of aquifers, repressuring of aquifers through wells, or geotechnical measures to reduce ground lowering (Omoko et al., 2018).

Reliable and accurate techniques to measure the magnitude and distribution of land subsidence over time are available; for instance, ground-based monitoring techniques (leveling, global position systems, extensometers, and geodetic surveys) can be combined with remote sensing (interferometric synthetic aperture radar or InSAR) (Jensen, 2009; Grgić et al., 2020; Fabris et al., 2021; Cenni et al., 2021; Raspini et al., 2022). Indeed, InSAR can detect ground movements over wide areas and has often been helpful in discovering unknown subsidence features (Strozzi et al., 2001; Omoko et al., 2018; Solari et al., 2018; Radutu and Vlad-Sandru, 2023). The impacts of land subsidence are expected to become greater issues in the future considering the increasing sea level, population growth, intensification of coastal erosion and extreme events, and increases in flood risk and freshwater salinization (Klein et al., 2003; Nicholls et al., 2007; Eggleston and Pope, 2013; Hallegatte et al., 2013; Erkens et al., 2015). Owing to their positions and low elevations, cities in coastal or deltaic environments are more vulnerable to these phenomena (Nicholls et al., 2007), which are further worsened by proneness to subsidence of their sedimentary deposits induced by natural or anthropic causes or both (Poland, 1984; Galloway et al., 1999).

In the future, increasing numbers of people living in coastal areas will be exposed to higher risks of flooding due to sea level rise and climate change than those living in non-coastal areas (Hanson et al., 2011; Higgins, 2016). In 2005, about 13 of the 20 most populated cities of vital economic importance globally were port cities (Nicholls, 2008). A total of 136 possibly at-risk cities were identified by Nicholls (2008) based on their marine flood vulnerability, and this number is expected to increase with demography and socioeconomic future evolutions of the cities, their vulnerability to sea level rise due to climate changes, and human-induced subsidence effects (Nicholls, 2008; Hallegatte et al., 2013); with population growth, socioeconomic growth and urbanization would be the most important drivers of the exposure rate (Nicholls, 2008). Hallegatte et al. (2013) additionally quantified the economic losses expected by 2050 from increased flood risks in these 136 coastal cities by considering the growing populations, changing climates, and rough estimates of land subsidence. The demand for drinking water is also expected to increase over the next few decades due to population and economic growths, which will result in groundwater depletion (Famiglietti, 2014; Water, 2022) and consequently lead to potential subsidence that threatens almost 12 million km² (8%) of the global land surface with a probability exceeding 50%, according to Herrera-García et al. (2021).

Other authors have previously investigated existing literature on land subsidence; for instance, Buffardi and Ruberti (2023) conducted a bibliometric analysis of the abstracts, keywords, and titles of published works; although their work highlights the most commonly investigated research topics, it does not provide site-specific information on the drivers of subsidence. The database proposed by Bagheri-Gavkosh et al. (2021) analyzes subsidence around the world, including metropolitan areas; however, many of the cities that were identified by Nicholls (2008) as expected to grow in relation to the demography and socioeconomic future were not included in their research. Additionally, since the authors investigated subsidence in both coastal and non-coastal areas, their bibliographic review of each site is not comprehensive, whereas the aim of the present work is to provide a thorough overview of land subsidence in each selected city.

Given this framework, the present study aims to provide an open-source, peer-reviewed, and comprehensive database of the land subsidence phenomenon in 143 major coastal cities. Moreover, we aim to facilitate future research on land subsidence in both previously identified cities and cities where further research is still needed.

The proposed database is expected to expand the knowledge on land subsidence and its causes while increasing global awareness of this phenomenon among researchers, the scientific community, stakeholders, and policymakers by providing land subsidence information at the city scale as well as proneness to land subsidence that can also be useful in urban planning and development. Furthermore, the free availability of the database aims to promote cooperation among researchers globally, so that the database can be updated and missing information on land subsidence in major coastal cities can be supplemented.

2 Data and methods

The flowchart in Figure 1 explains the overall methodology of this study. The first step involved identifying the importance of tackling land subsidence through a literary review on land subsidence; this process allowed us to identify the main causes of land subsidence and the geological settings in which subsidence occurs. It was also possible to identify sites that were potentially vulnerable to both subsidence and sea level rise (Nicholls, 2008; Hallegatte et al., 2013; Solari et al., 2018), which resulted in the selection of 143 cities around the world (Supplementary Table S1), including the 136 cities reported by Hallegate et al. (2013). An exclusive literary review of scientific papers was conducted to ensure high reliability of the information on the selected 143 coastal cities (Figure 2; Supplementary Table S1), and these data were collected in a database. For each city, the following information was extracted: main and secondary causes of land subsidence, lithological class, and groundwater recharge class.

FIGURE 1

FIGURE 2

The research papers were collected from researchgate.net, scopus.com, and scholar.google.com using keywords such as “satellite name (for example: ERS-1/2, Radarsat-1/2, Sentinel-1)+city name,” “land subsidence+city name,” “land subsidence+country name,” “GPS+city name,” “ground deformation+city name,” and “insar+city name.” The proposed database collected papers published until the end of 2022. Articles and books published in English, Italian, French, Dutch, and Spanish were also considered. The geological settings for each city were derived from the Global Lithological Map Database (Hartmann and Moosdorf, 2012) and Groundwater Resources of the World (Richts et al., 2011). The Global Lithological Map Database is composed of 16 classes: unconsolidated sediments, basic volcanic rocks, siliciclastic sedimentary rocks, basic plutonic rocks, mixed sedimentary rocks, carbonate sedimentary rocks, acid volcanic rocks, metamorphic rocks, acid plutonic rocks, intermediate volcanic rocks, water bodies, pyroclastic rocks, intermediate plutonic rocks, evaporates, no data, and ice and glaciers. The Groundwater Resources of the World map was organized under three main groups: major basins, complex structures, and local/shallow aquifers. Each group was classified on the basis of groundwater recharge (mm/year). For the major basins group, the classes include very low (<2), low (2–20), medium (20–100), high (100–300), and very high (>300) recharge. The complex structures group included classes like low to very low (<20), medium (20–100), high (100–300), and very high (>300) recharge. The local/shallow aquifers comprise classes like medium to very low (<100) and very high to high (>100) recharge. Additionally, a more detailed analysis was carried out in cities where groundwater extraction is or has been the main driver of land subsidence.

3 Results

We collected 679 published articles on the 143 coastal cities around the world (Table 1) to compile the database, which is freely available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8349293 (Pedretti et al., 2023). The oldest report on subsidence in one of the 143 cities was published in 1909 about land subsidence in the Netherlands (Molengraaff, 1909), and no further works were published until the late 1940s, when some reports were published on land subsidence in Los Angeles (Harris and Harlow, 1948; Gilluly and Grant, 1949; McCann and Wilts, 1951; Berbower, 1959). The first paper in the database on an African city was published in 1953 regarding subsidence in South Africa (King, 1953); the first paper on subsidence in Asia was published in 1969 (Poland and Davis, 1969), while the first report from Oceania was in 1993 (Belperio, 1993) and that from South America was in 1988 (Aubrey et al., 1988).

Reports on land subsidence published before the 2000s account for only 13% of all papers found, while those published between 2000 and 2009 amount to 19% and papers published between 2010 and 2022 constitute 69% of the total. As seen in Figure 3 (number of publications per year), there is an increasing number of articles published over the last few years, with nearly 200 articles being published between 2020 and 2022 alone. Table 2 summarizes the causes of land subsidence commonly found in literature, which were adopted in the database. The main causes of subsidence identified for each continent are shown in Figure 4. In Africa, 26% of subsidence is unexplained, while 20% of the subsidence in North America is due to groundwater extraction; in South America, 31% of incidents are unexplained, while 44% of the incidents in Asia are due to groundwater extraction; in Europe, 26% of incidents are due to artificial loading, and 50% of the incidents in Oceania are due to groundwater extraction.

FIGURE 3

FIGURE 4

The main causes of subsidence identified in the 143 coastal cities are shown in Figure 5. In about 28% of these cities, groundwater extraction is identified as the main cause of land subsidence at present or possibly in the future, and this factor is considered the most common cause (Table 3). The remaining cities experience land subsidence due to artificial loading (13%), consolidation of sediments (11%), or tectonics and earthquakes (6%). In 2% of the cities, land subsidence is due to hydrocarbon extraction, and mining of ores was responsible in 3% of the cases. The shrinkage and swelling of clay-rich soils are the main causes of land subsidence in 1% of the identified cities, while 1% of the cities were reported to have multiple causes of land subsidence.

FIGURE 5

The percentage of cities in which no data were available was 20% globally: 32% in Africa, 28% in North America, 31% in South America, 17% in Oceania, 11% in Asia, and 13% in Europe. In 10% of the cities, there is evidence of land subsidence without clear identification of the causes, while land subsidence was not detected for 1% of the cities based on our research. The secondary causes of land subsidence identified for each continent are shown in Figure 6. These secondary causes are artificial loading (11%) and consolidation (11%) in Africa, artificial loading (8%) in North America, multiple secondary causes in South America and Europe (6% and 22%, respectively), and consolidation in Oceania and Asia (both 17%). The secondary causes of land subsidence identified for the 143 cities are shown in Figure 7. In 34% of the cities, the secondary cause of land subsidence was not clear, and no information could be found for 22% of the cities; in 11% of the cities, there were multiple secondary causes of land subsidence. For instance, artificial loading was associated with mining in the city of Fuzhou-Fujian, shrinkage and swelling of clay were the causes in Barranquilla and Amsterdam, consolidation of sediments was the cause in Venice, peat oxidation was the cause in Venice and Amsterdam, and tectonics or earthquakes were responsible in Karachi and Sapporo. Furthermore, groundwater extraction was associated with the consolidation of sediments in Ravenna, Surabaya, and Xiamen, with mining in Athens, and tectonics or earthquakes in Surabaya. Artificial loading was the secondary cause in 7% of the cities, while consolidation of sediments and groundwater extraction were the secondary drivers of subsidence in 8% of the cities.

FIGURE 6

FIGURE 7

In the 143 cities identified herein, the most commonly found lithological classes are unconsolidated sediments (44%) and sedimentary rocks (30%) (Figure 8A; Hartmann and Moosdorf, 2012), of which 30% are carbonate sedimentary rocks. Figure 8B shows the lithology classification for each continent: unconsolidated sediments, basic volcanic rocks, siliciclastic sedimentary rocks, basic plutonic rocks, mixed sedimentary rocks, carbonate sedimentary rocks, acid volcanic rocks, metamorphic rocks, acid plutonic rocks, intermediate volcanic rocks, and pyroclastic rocks.

FIGURE 8

Major basins, including shallow unconfined aquifers and deep confined aquifers, are the most common type of Groundwater Resources of the World in the 143 cities (53%) (Figure 9A). The volumes of stored groundwater in the major basins are significant, since they include highly productive aquifers as well as artesian zones (Margat and Van, 2013). Aquifers with complex geological structures account for 25% of the total, and these include rather productive local aquifers (volcanic or karst aquifers) that are shallow or deep and have significant storage (Margat and Van, 2013). Lastly, 22% of all aquifers are local and shallow aquifers in weathered or fissured rock and alluvial aquifers, characterized by low volumes of stored groundwater (Margat and Van, 2013). Figure 9B shows how 74% of all African cities are located in correspondence with major basins, 21% in complex structures, and 5% in local or shallow aquifers. In Asia, the most common types are the major basins, which account for 54% of the total, while 22% of the cities are in complex structures and 24% are in local or shallow aquifers. In Europe, 48% of the cities are in major basins, 35% are in complex structures, and 17% are in local or shallow aquifers. In the North and South Americas, the most common types are major basins (36% and 56%, respectively), while 32% of the cities are located in complex structures in North America and 38% are located in local or shallow aquifers in South America. In Oceania, 50% of the cities are in major basins, while the remaining 50% are in complex structures.

FIGURE 9

We additionally compared the main causes of land subsidence, i.e., groundwater extraction (40 cities), with the lithology and groundwater resource classes (Figure 10). About 60% of these 40 cities are located in unconsolidated sediments, 47.5% are located in major groundwater basins with high (100–300 mm/year) recharge, 15% are situated in major groundwater basins with very high (>300 mm/year) recharge, 12.5% are located in complex hydrogeological structures with high (100–300 mm/year) recharge, and 5% are situated in local and shallow aquifers with very high to high (>100 mm/year) recharge. A more detailed analysis of the 40 cities spread across all continents, in which groundwater extraction is or has been the main driver of subsidence, is provided in Table 4. Of these, 33 cities are still experiencing subsidence at present, whereas mitigation techniques adopted in three cities (e.g., regulation of the quantity of groundwater that can be pumped or artificial recharge of the aquifer system) (Tang et al., 2022; Sahuquillo et al., 2022; Wu et al., 2022) stopped land subsidence altogether. A total of 15 cities have adopted mitigation techniques to limit land subsidence, while 25 either do not have such measures in place or no information could be found. Subsidence has been recorded in these cities as early as the 19th century and has been monitored throughout the decades using satellite, GPS, and GNSS techniques. The maximum subsidence rate recorded was 280 mm/year; however, it was not possible to gather the maximum yearly subsidence rate for seven cities.

FIGURE 10

4 Discussion

The bibliographic review reported in this work identifies groundwater extraction as the most frequent cause of subsidence in the cities located in Africa, North and South Americas, Asia, and Oceania, whereas artificial loading was the most main subsidence cause in Europe. These findings are in line with the report of Nicholls et al. (2007), according to whom subsidence related to groundwater extraction is more prominent in cities that are growing; for instance, most cities in Asia have grown both economically (increasing gross domestic product (GDP)) and geographically, with increased population density, while cities in Africa and South America have undergone rapid urban expansion and have witnessed increases in population density (Pandey et al., 2013; Zhong et al., 2023). Additionally, among the top-10 countries for total groundwater usage, eight are located in Asia (Ritchie and Roser, 2023). Similarly, cities in Oceania (Australia) have been steadily growing in population (Krockenberger, 2015), and Australia is the third country in the world with the most amount of groundwater withdrawal for agricultural purposes (Ritchie and Roser, 2023). Although North American and European cities have experienced increases in their GDPs, the population densities are decreasing (Zhong et al., 2023). Nevertheless, two North American countries (United States and Mexico) are respectively 3rd and 7th based on total groundwater usage. Additionally, the United States has the highest water usage rate per capita worldwide, while Mexico has the 2nd highest groundwater withdrawal rate in the world for agricultural purposes as of 2015 (Ritchie and Roser, 2023).

Groundwater extraction was identified as the main cause of subsidence in 40 cities, which constitute 28% of the total and 35% of the 115 cities in which it was possible to identify a main cause of subsidence; this makes subsidence through groundwater extraction an especially pressing issue and the most commonly occurring factor according to the World Population Prospects created by the United Nations Organization (ONU). This finding is in line with the report by Bagheri-Gavkosh et al. (2021), where groundwater extraction was identified as the most common cause of land subsidence. Of the 40 cities identified, 15 have been implementing mitigation techniques to reduce the impacts of groundwater extraction on land subsidence; these entail regulation of the quantity of groundwater that can be pumped and artificial recharge of the aquifer system (Sahuquillo et al., 2022; Tang et al., 2022; Wu et al., 2022). Although it is not usually possible to restore an aquifer to its original thickness (Tang et al., 2022), mitigation techniques have proven to be successful in reducing or even stopping subsidence altogether. For instance, in the cities of San Jose (CA), Tokyo, and Taipei, subsidence is no longer considered an issue (Hwang and Moh, 2020; Cao et al., 2021; Sahuquillo et al., 2022). In Jakarta, the subsidence rate has decreased from a maximum of 280 mm/year over 1982–2010 (Abidin et al., 2011) to a minimum of 50 mm/year (Wu et al., 2022) with the implementation of mitigation techniques in the suburbs. Similarly, in Shanghai where the maximum cumulative subsidence was 2.6 m, the yearly land subsidence rate decreased from 16 mm over 1990–2001 (Chai et al., 2004) to 10 mm close to many places near the water (Wu et al., 2022). Most of the area within the limits of Houston city show no substantial subsidence at present, while subsidence is still recorded in the suburban areas; however, a total subsidence of 3.0 m has been historically measured since 1917 (Galloway et al., 1999; Khan et al., 2022). In Krung Thep (Bangkok), land subsidence reached its most critical state in the early 1980s, when the rate was as high as 120 mm/year (Phien-wej et al., 2006); this regional-scale subsidence decreased to a maximum of 30 mm/year between 2018 and 2021 following mitigation efforts (Jeon and Yi, 2021). Among the analyzed cities, Guangzhou, Ho Chi Minh City, and Mumbai are already experiencing subsidence due to groundwater extraction and are among the cities that have experienced the majority of population increase worldwide, according to Zhong et al. (2023). Of these, only Ho Chi Minh City has been investing in mitigation measures since 1998 to reduce the impacts of floods (Ho, 2008). It is therefore clear from this analysis that historically, regulation of groundwater extraction is an effective tool for mitigating land subsidence in cities where groundwater extraction is the main cause.

It is not always possible to pinpoint a single cause of subsidence in cities where multiple influencing factors have been observed. This is the case for cities like Brisbane and Glasgow; in Brisbane, literature research identified multiple possible causes, such as mining of ore materials and excavation of tunnels, whereas in Glasgow, it was not possible to identify a single main cause among consolidation, artificial loading, and excavation of tunnels. In the case of Port-au-Prince and Porto, based on the literature review, the cities were deemed to be stable. However, while subsidence has not been recorded at present, it could still be occurring in areas that are yet to be investigated; therefore, it is advisable to continue investing resources for subsidence.

In the cities identified by Nicholls et al. (2007) and Hallegatte et al. (2013) on the basis of geopolitical and economic factors, it was oftentimes not possible to confirm or deny the occurrence of land subsidence. Of the 143 cities investigated, it was not possible to gather any data on 32% of African cities, 28% of North American cities, 31% of South American cities, 17% of Oceanian cities, 13% of European cities, and 11% of Asian cities. This can be due to absence of subsidence or lack of resources to investigate the issue or lack of available literature in languages accessible to the authors. It is clear that further investigations are necessary to fill this gap in research and that the problem of land subsidence is an urgent issue that must be investigated, measured, and monitored.

The main limitation of this research is that it aims to group past investigations regarding the subsidence phenomenon at the city level; however, this phenomenon can be very heterogeneous as both localized and widespread sinking can be classified as subsidence within a city. Large numbers of publications (e.g., in case of calamities) may also introduce biases when estimating the main causes of subsidence in such cities. Additionally, authors commonly analyze subsidence occurring within the same city at different locations, making it difficult to pinpoint a single driver of subsidence and study the spatial and temporal evolutions of the phenomena. Even within the same city, local variations in lithology or changes in land use can influence the subsidence dynamics considerably (Momotake, 1996; Galloway et al., 1999; Allis, 2000; Hu et al., 2004; Caramanna et al., 2008; Tularam and Krishna, 2009; Lorphensri et al., 2011; Tomás et al., 2014; Mastin et al., 2018; Solari et al., 2018; Loupasakis, 2020; Hamdani et al., 2021; Sarah et al., 2021; Satriyo, 2021; Calabrese et al., 2021; Budiyono et al., 2022; Sadjadi, 2022; Kurniawan and Deviantari, 2022). This also means that when multiple subsidence causes are identified for a city, it is possible that they may interact or could have occurred at different locations or occurred in specific moments in time, therefore being unrelated.

It may not be possible to provide a meaningful subsidence rate for each city because the rates derived from literature may not be comparable even within the same city. The subsidence rates are also obtained with different techniques in different years over different time spans using different remote sensing methods (ERS-1/2, Radarsat-1/2, Sentinel-1, etc.) at different spatial resolutions in different areas of the same cities and using unique classifications of the rates. Oftentimes, authors do not provide information regarding how the subsidence rate was acquired in the first place, or they only provide subsidence rates along the line of sight of the satellite or as vertical velocities. This means that once the cities are grouped into those with common characteristics, the number of comparable rates is very limited and therefore not significant to identify patterns of correlation between subsidence rates recorded by remote sensing sensors and from the ground. For local subsidence mitigation, the proposed database would therefore need to be integrated with more detailed analyses, including field observations and data collection.

Another limitation of this work is that the classifications proposed within the database are subjective and the research was limited to scientific papers while excluding local news sources for the sake of information quality: the search was limited to peer-reviewed articles from websites such as https://researchgate.net, https://scopus.com, and https://scholar.google.com. Additionally, only articles in languages accessible to the authors, such as English, Italian, French, Dutch, and Spanish, were considered.

However, this work provides a thorough investigation on the phenomenon of subsidence in 143 coastal cities and its relationships to the local hydrogeological settings. Hence, it could be a useful tool for the scientific community because it gives a preliminary overview of subsidence as well as the drivers in these areas, while highlighting the existing gaps in literature. The database is openly accessible, is peer-reviewed, and has global scope, promoting cooperation between academia and local communities as well as different countries, especially those where research on this topic is still lacking. It allows experts who aim to build local hydrogeological models to easily access information regarding both the hydrogeological settings and drivers of subsidence in each city.

The database also allows stakeholders and policymakers who may not be familiar with the issue of subsidence to easily access a comprehensive collection of peer-reviewed articles about their cities. This approach can provide an overview of the vulnerable areas within a city and allow access to information regarding how the issue of subsidence was tackled in similar hydrogeological settings or in areas where the drivers of subsidence were similar. It is expected to provide stakeholders with precedents on addressing the issue of subsidence in their own countries to limit economical losses while also protecting the population.

In literature, subsidence has been monitored through a very diverse array of techniques and methodologies: the database also provides an overview of the drivers of subsidence in a large sample of major coastal cities worldwide. This approach facilitates the creation of global subsidence models to address the issue at a global scale, benefitting countries that do not have the means to investigate the drivers of subsidence on their own at present. This database also contributes to fulfilling the goals of the Sustainable Development Agenda 2030 (UN, 2015) by aiding stakeholders in urban planning and management through reducing the impacts of subsidence on the more vulnerable and marginalized communities, while promoting and enabling future research along with increasing awareness to current and future risks caused by human activities and climate changes.

5 Conclusion

Subsidence is the gradual lowering or sudden sinking of the ground surface and is known to cause widespread impacts in terms of damages to infrastructures, utility lines, and buildings as well as changes in surficial drainage systems and groundwater conditions. This issue is expected to broaden in the future and impact the population more severely in major coastal cities, while also being concerned with the issues of sea level rise, population growth, intensification of coastal erosion and extreme events, increases in flood risk and salinization of freshwater, and increased extraction of groundwater due to population growth.

The aim of this work was to provide an open-source, accurate, peer-reviewed, and comprehensive database of subsidence in 143 coastal cities along with their main and secondary subsidence causes to help facilitate future research regarding subsidence in both priorly identified at-risk areas and areas where the potential impacts of subsidence are still unknown. In line with the findings of Bagheri-Gavkosh et al. (2021), the extraction of groundwater was identified as the most common driver of subsidence in the 143 cities, which is especially concerning given the World Population Prospects for population growth proposed by the ONU.

In African, Asian, Oceanian, and South American cities that are either growing economically or expanding, the increases in water demands reflect the increases in subsidence frequency, whereas this is not the case in European cities, where the GDP is growing on average even as the population density is decreasing. In North American cities, the extraction of groundwater is still the main driver of subsidence even as the population density is decreasing; however, as of 2020, the United States and Mexico are among the top-7 countries for total annual freshwater withdrawals, with the United States additionally having the highest water usage rate per capita and Mexico having the second highest groundwater withdrawal rate for agricultural purposes globally as of 2015 (Ritchie and Roser, 2023).

The analysis was conducted on 40 cities that are either experiencing or have experienced subsidence due to extraction of groundwater, and the findings highlight that implementation of mitigation techniques such as regulation of the pumping rates or artificial recharge of aquifer systems have either reduced or stopped subsidence altogether. It is therefore clear from this analysis that historical regulations of groundwater extraction have been effective tools for mitigating land subsidence in cities where groundwater extraction was the main cause. Owing to the method of selection of the cities, which was based on geopolitical and economic factors, and the severe lack of research regarding subsidence in some areas, it was not possible to gather data regarding land subsidence in a significant portion (20%) of the listed cities.

It must be noted that even within the same city, subsidence may have occurred at different locations due to different drivers and may have been measured using different techniques over different time spans; occasionally, the authors of these investigations do not provide insights into any of these variables, so it was not possible to analyze subsidence quantitatively based on literature alone in some cases. In other cases, the analysis of groundwater extraction rates (in place and time) as well as historical development of mining activities and underground engineering (such as tunneling) could be carried out on the city scale; however, this was beyond the scope of the present work.

The proposed database provides an in-depth investigation of land subsidence in a large sample of major cities around the world and was compiled with the aim of increasing the knowledge on the phenomenon to enhance global awareness of land subsidence among researchers, the scientific community, stakeholders, and policymakers for formulating prevention and urban planning strategies.

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