ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Earth Sci.
Sec. Geoscience and Society
Simulating carbon storage dynamics in the Chengdu-Chongqing region: A multi-scenario PLUS-InVEST model application
Provisionally accepted
- 1Southwest Minzu University, Chengdu, China
- 2Sichuan Agricultural University, Ya'an, China
- 3Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, Chengdu, China
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Carbon storage is a key indicator for assessing the carbon sink capacity of terrestrial ecosystems. Grasping its evolutionary patterns and simulating and predicting carbon storage under future scenarios hold significant practical importance for achieving the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals and advancing sustainable development. This paper takes the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle(CCEC) region as the research subject.Coupled with the PLUS-InVEST model, this paper simulated carbon storage under three scenarios in the CCEC region in 2035, and analyzed the driving forces on carbon storage based on Geodetector. The results showed that: (1) From 2000 to 2020, Carbon storage exhibits a spatial distribution pattern characterized by higher values at the edges and lower values in the center. Over the past two decades, the carbon storage in the study area increased by 1.45×106 tons. (2) Under the natural development scenario and the planning and development scenario, carbon storage is projected to decrease by 1.11×10⁶ tons and 1.29×10⁶ tons respectively by 2035, with the areas experiencing reductions accounting for 1.54% and 1.77% of the total study area. Under the ecological conservation scenario, carbon storage is projected to increase by 3.97×10⁶ tons, and the area where the increase occurs accounts for 1.28% of the total study area. (3) Under future scenarios, the conversion of land to forest contributes to an increase in carbon storage, while the expansion of construction land and water bodies leads to a significant loss in carbon storage. (4) The change in carbon storage is the result of multiple factors, such as elevation, temperature, slope, wind speed, and population density. The interactions between dual factors exhibited enhancing effects, with the combinations of elevation and nighttime light, as well as temperature and nighttime light, being the most influential drivers of carbon storage.
Keywords: Carbon Storage, Geodetector, InVEST model, Multiple scenarios, Plus model
Received: 02 Nov 2025; Accepted: 29 Dec 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Shi, Yang, Liu, Li and Lu. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence: Hongyuan Lu
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