Abstract
Antarctic land ice stores the majority of Earth’s freshwater and carries substantial uncertainties regarding its future contribution to global sea level rise. While ocean processes associated with basal melting currently dominate ice loss, atmospheric forcing could have an increasing future impact, especially with intensified extreme weather events. For instance, atmospheric rivers, which are key drivers of long-distance moisture transport, introduce significant uncertainties to Antarctica’s ice mass balance, as they are capable of causing both intense snowfall and surface melting. They also impact ocean stratification and mixed-layer depth through freshwater input, ultimately affecting air-sea exchange. Associated interactions among components of the Earth system—atmosphere, ocean, and glacier—are not fully captured by global climate models and observations. This paper assesses Antarctica’s future, highlighting uncertainties stemming from limited understanding of atmospheric and oceanic forcings such as atmospheric rivers, and their consequences for projecting sea-level rise-related hazards.
1 Introduction
The Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) holds approximately 90 percent of Earth’s total ice volume, which is equivalent to more than 57 m of potential global sea-level rise (SLR; Figure 1a; DeConto et al., 2021). From 1992 to 2020, the AIS lost ice mass at an average rate of 92 ± 18 Gt yr−1 (equivalent to global mean SLR of ∼0.26 ± 0.05 mm yr-1), particularly in the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS; Diener et al., 2021; Otosaka et al., 2023). Under the high greenhouse gas emission scenario (SSP5-8.5), the AIS could contribute 0.03–0.34 m to the total global SLR of 0.63–1.01 m by 2100 (Meinshausen, 2020; Fox-Kemper, 2021), representing the largest source of uncertainty in the future (Pattyn and Morlighem, 2020; Fricker et al., 2025). The AIS gains mass from snow accumulation and loses mass from basal melting and iceberg calving from its floating ice shelves (Adusumilli et al., 2020), which stabilize roughly 75% of the ice sheet by exerting resistive stress that slows the flow of outlet glaciers (Dupont and Alley, 2005). Once they break away, ice sheets can undergo accelerated ice flow and increasing ice discharge into the ocean, ultimately contributing to global SLR (Scambos et al., 2004). The weakening of Antarctic ice shelves is often associated with basal melting from oceanic processes (Paolo et al., 2015), collapsing influenced by atmospheric forcing (Wille et al., 2022), and internal ice stress (Larour et al., 2021).
FIGURE 1
Change in Antarctic ice mass balance and projected global and regional sea level rise (SLR). (a) Potential sea level contributions from individual sectors of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (units: m; adopted from Dr. Cyrille Mosbeux’s figure); (b) Antarctica cumulative ice mass balance from 1992 to 2020 based on the dataset produced by Ice Sheet Mass Balance Intercomparison Exercise (IMBIE; Otosaka, 2023); (c) global SLR projections under different shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) scenarios from IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (IPCC, 2021); (d) relative SLR over the coastal U.S. regions from NOAA CO-OPS relative sea level trends tool (https://noaa.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=809c9743769446bab4f48003498a78a9). In panel (a), the grey shade shows Antarctic topography based on the Reference Elevation Model of Antarctica (REMA; Howat et al., 2019; Howat, 2022). In panel (c), projections are relative to a 1995–2014 baseline. The SSP-8.5 High Impact (Low Confidence), the highest projection, includes ice sheet processes related to the Marine Ice Cliff Instability that cannot be ruled out. Shade ranges show the 17th-83rd percentile ranges.
Oceanic processes exert a greater influence than atmospheric forcing on Antarctic ice loss (Purich and Doddridge, 2023). However, Antarctic surface melting could double by the 2100s, rendering ice shelves more vulnerable (Trusel et al., 2015). Atmospheric forcing directly impacts the ice surface via warm air advection and precipitation, or indirectly via changing the properties of the ocean surface (Scott et al., 2019; Vignon et al., 2021; Davison et al., 2023). The uncertainty in the projection of the AIS mass balance stems from Antarctica’s rapidly evolving conditions and the reinforced feedback mechanisms among the atmosphere, ocean, and cryosphere (Figure 2a), which are inadequately represented in current climate models (Bronselaer et al., 2018; Fricker et al., 2025).
FIGURE 2
Drivers of Antarctic ice mass balance, especially for Atmospheric Rivers (ARs), and their contribution to global sea level rise (SLR). (a) Schematic illustrating the physical mechanisms that regulate Antarctic ice mass balance (adapted from Dr. Helen Fricker’s figure: https://elindarelius.no/2017/09/04/why-is-the-antarctic-ice-sheet-melting/); (b) schematic illustrating the contributions of different Earth system components to global SLR.
Atmospheric rivers (AR) constitute a prominent atmospheric phenomenon that has triggered several extreme weather events and exerted substantial impacts on the Antarctic ice surface (Wille et al., 2022; Gorodetskaya, 2023; Wille et al., 2024a; Wille et al., 2024b). Often associated with a low-level jet ahead of a cold front and an extratropical cyclone, ARs are long, narrow, and transient corridors that transport intense water vapor amounts from lower to higher latitudes in the lower troposphere (Ralph et al., 2018). ARs not only can trigger extensive surface melting that jeopardizes ice shelf stability but also can offset Antarctic ice loss through intense snowfall (Wille et al., 2022; Adusumilli et al., 2020). From 1980 to 2020, ARs contributed approximately 13% ± 3% of total AIS precipitation and explained 35% of the interannual variability, primarily leading to snow accumulation (Maclennan et al., 2022). Under a warming climate, Antarctica might be expected to experience more frequent and intense rainfall along the coast by the end of this century, potentially causing rain-on-snow and preconditioning the snowpack for surface melting along the coastal region (Vignon et al., 2021; Wille et al., 2025).
This perspective paper provides an overview of the interactions among various Earth system components and their effects on the evolving changes in Antarctica, with a particular emphasis on ARs and associated extreme weather events (Supplementary Figure S1a). We highlight current uncertainties in projecting Antarctic ice volume, and its associated SLR impacts on global coastlines, particularly in regions already affected by extreme weather and in areas more vulnerable to natural hazards due to geographic conditions and socio-economic factors. Finally, we propose actionable recommendations to advance Antarctic research as a critical foundation for effective climate adaptation and mitigation policies.
2 Oceanic and atmospheric forcing on Antarctica
2.1 Basal melting driven by ocean
Between 1994 and 2018, most Antarctic ice shelves exhibited considerable variations in basal meltwater flux, driven by differences between ice shelves exposed to cold ocean water (cold-water ice shelves) and those exposed to warm ocean water (warm-water ice shelves; Adusumilli et al., 2020; Narayanan et al., 2019; Narayanan et al., 2023). Basal melting accounts for ∼50% of the mass loss of Antarctic ice shelves, and can be attributed to three distinct oceanographic processes (Adusumilli et al., 2020). Melting at the deep grounding line of cold-water ice shelves is a consequence of the inflow of dense, high-salinity shelf water (HSSW), which is often produced in coastal polynyas during sea ice formation (Adusumilli et al., 2020; Miller et al., 2024). In contrast, for warm-water ice shelves, the intrusion of Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) into cavities beneath the ice shelf promotes more significant melting (Nakayama et al., 2018), leading to a reduced buttressing effect (Nicholls, 1997; Goldberg et al., 2019; Reese et al., 2018). Melting at the bottom near the ice front is influenced by seasonally warmed Antarctic surface water (AASW), which is linked to sea surface temperature (SST) fluctuations and the dynamic interplay of coastal ocean waves (Stewart et al., 2019; Adusumilli et al., 2020).
The oceanic processes associated with those three dominant water masses (HSSW, AASW, and CDW) are influenced by atmospheric circulation (Holland et al., 2020; e.g., air-sea buoyancy exchange), ocean conditions (e.g., stratification and subpolar gyre variability), and sea ice coverage (Turner et al., 2017). Reduced sea ice coverage and subsequent increases in SST have amplified basal melting driven by AASW under both the Ross and the Amery Ice Shelves (Stewart et al., 2019; Malyarenko et al., 2019; Aoki et al., 2022). Under the future extreme-warming scenario, the intensified contribution of AASW due to radiative heating of a sea-ice-free ocean and enhanced CDW intrusion can contribute to a substantial acceleration in basal melting of ice shelves (Kusahara et al., 2023). In addition, sea ice serves as a protective barrier against potentially destructive ocean waves along Antarctic coastal margin and enhances the buttressing effect on ice shelves (Massom et al., 2018). These processes interact with one another and create intricate feedback loops (Turner et al., 2017; Narayanan et al., 2019). For instance, ocean stratification can reduce the mixing between cold and fresh surface water and warm and salty CDW, thereby accelerating basal melting (Narayanan et al., 2023). Increased basal melting can further lead to larger melt channels and promote fracturing due to the roughness of the ice shelf base (Watkins et al., 2021).
2.2 Atmospheric forcings on the ice surface
Antarctica has experienced long-term warming, with the temperature trend exhibiting significant spatial and temporal variability (Turner et al., 2020; Jones et al., 2019). The Antarctic Peninsula has undergone a long-term warming exceeding 3 °C over the past 60 years, despite a brief cooling period since the late 1990s (Jones et al., 2019), with increased frequency of extreme high-temperature events in the late 20th century (Gorodetskaya, 2023; Turner et al., 2021). West Antarctica exhibited the most pronounced warming trend between 1958 and 2012 (Bromwich et al., 2013a; Bromwich et al., 2013b), followed by a subsequent cooling trend in the early 2010s (Jones et al., 2019; Zhang et al., 2023). In contrast, East Antarctica exhibited strong spatial variability, with significant warming over the interior (Jones et al., 2019; Clem et al., 2020; Kurita et al., 2025). Furthermore, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models substantially overestimate Antarctic warming by projecting rates comparable to the global average and misrepresenting spatial patterns, while ground observations suggest that although the interior has experienced significant warming, much of the Antarctic coast shows weak long-term trends that require further investigation.
Antarctic surface temperature is influenced by tropical SST via large-scale atmospheric teleconnections (Li et al., 2021), regional circulation patterns (Raphael et al., 2016), and local drivers (Elvidge and Renfrew, 2016). For instance, positive Southern Annular Mode (SAM), characterized by stronger westerly winds, often leads to warming over the Antarctic Peninsula region and cooling over the rest of the Antarctic continent (Marshall et al., 2011), while a negative SAM is associated with the opposite pattern. Across most of the Antarctic continent, the recent positive trend in the SAM has suppressed the long-term warming signal, while the underlying background warming is likely attributable to anthropogenic forcing (Jones et al., 2019). In addition, these drivers are interconnected and can result in significant internal variations in surface temperature. A deeper Amundsen Sea Low, typically associated with La Niña and positive SAM, strengthens northerly winds to the Antarctic Peninsula and West Antarctica, often resulting in temperature increases (Raphael et al., 2016). Stronger westerly winds promote more frequent warm and dry downslope Föhn winds on the leeside of the Antarctic Peninsula, further increasing the surface temperature (Cape et al., 2015).
Surface melting exhibits exponential growth as temperature increases across the Antarctic ice surface during austral summer, especially over the coastal ice shelves (Trusel et al., 2013; Trusel et al., 2015; Banwell et al., 2023). Liquid precipitation can also prime the ice surface for significant surface melting (Vignon et al., 2021). Once surface meltwater forms, it can accumulate in crevasses and refreeze, generating pressure that induces hydrofracturing, which may trigger ice shelf break-up and accelerate outlet glacier flow (Paolo et al., 2015; Donat-Magnin, 2020; DeConto et al., 2021). Meltwater further enhances surface melting by lowering albedo and releasing latent heat during refreezing, leading to the formation of impermeable ice lenses and increasing the likelihood of future melt pond development (Jakobs et al., 2021; Bell et al., 2018). Besides surface melting, atmospheric forcing can also lead to surface accumulation from snowfall and surface ablation due to erosion and sublimation caused by high winds and dry conditions (Agosta et al., 2019).
2.3 Interaction between ocean and atmosphere
The interaction between the ocean and atmosphere is critical for climate research over the Southern Hemisphere and can indirectly affect the Antarctic ice mass balance. First, offshore wind significantly impacts the access of CDW to Antarctic continental ice shelves by altering the depth at which CDW flows above the deep ocean (Thoma et al., 2008). Intrusion of the CDW is one of the key mechanisms contributing to glacier thinning, especially around the Amundsen Sea Embayment, which has contributed 9.2 ± 1.2 mm to global SLR since 1996, primarily due to ocean forcing (Davison et al., 2023). Also, surface winds over the mid-to-high latitude Southern Ocean, governed by atmospheric circulation, account for approximately 80% of deep water upwelling (Talley, 2015). This deep water mitigates anthropogenic warming and absorbs atmospheric carbon (Cai et al., 2023), significantly impacting the global climate, especially in Antarctica.
Second, freshwater input from either Antarctic ice loss or precipitation can lead to ocean surface freshening, cooling, and sea ice expansion, which in turn drive changes in atmospheric conditions (Papritz et al., 2014; Pauling et al., 2016; Pan et al., 2022; Xu, 2025). The change in Antarctic sea ice coverage could be sensitive to the amount of freshwater input (Haid et al., 2017). Notably, Antarctic sea ice has been in decline beginning in 2016, and from 2022 onward its annual minimum extent has remained below two million square kilometers, with an all-time record low of 1.79 million square kilometers in February 2023 (Windnagel et al., 2025). This marks a reversal from the steady sea-ice increase observed prior to 2016, further underscoring the complex atmosphere-ocean interactions and their compound impacts on sea-ice variability (Fogt et al., 2022; Ezber et al., 2025). In sum, the Southern Ocean has undergone overall warming (Pan et al., 2025), while Antarctic surface temperatures exhibit strong spatial variability (Bromwich et al., 2025). Their future trajectories remain uncertain due to complex and poorly understood interactions among components of the Earth system, particularly under extreme weather scenarios such as ARs, which are discussed in the next section (Figure 2).
3 A wake-up call from recent extreme atmospheric river (AR) activity
Atmospheric rivers (ARs) in Antarctica act as a bridge that strengthens the linkages among the ocean, atmosphere, and glaciers via moisture and heat transport (Figure 2b). For instance, ARs gather moisture from the mid-latitude ocean along their pathways and deliver freshwater back to the high-latitude ocean via precipitation that could affect overturning circulation. AR-associated extreme weather events are capable of significantly altering the Antarctic mass balance (Figure 2b, Supplementary Figure S1a) despite occurring with relatively low frequency in Antarctica. Notably, ARs demonstrate a positive trend over the Antarctic Peninsula region and Indian Ocean sector that is consistent among multiple detection methods since the satellite era (Supplementary Figure S1a; Wille et al., 2025). Therefore, a collaborative effort during the Year of Polar Prediction-Southern Hemisphere (YOPP-SH) Winter Campaign yielded the development of an Enhanced AR Scale for polar regions (Zhang et al., 2024; Bromwich et al., 2024). This scale incorporates additional categories tailored for polar regions with lower integrated water vapor transport (IVT) thresholds, improving the characterization of AR strength and impacts in Antarctica for both forecasting and research applications (Supplementary Figures S1b,c).
ARs can drive extensive surface melting and ice shelf instability on coastal ice shelves through enhanced downward longwave radiation from low-level liquid-bearing clouds (Wille et al., 2024a), rain-on-snow events (Gorodetskaya, 2023), and amplified orographic forcing (Bozkurt et al., 2018; Zou, 2023). During the austral summer, ARs are responsible for 40% of surface meltwater over the Ross Ice Shelf and nearly 100% over Marie Byrd Land in West Antarctica from 1979-2017 (Wille et al., 2019). In contrast, AR-related mass gain over the AIS occurs primarily during the winter snow season. On 18 March 2022, East Antarctica experienced an unprecedented AR4 event resulting in intense snowfall and an estimated ice mass gain of ∼306 Gt (Supplementary Figure S1c; Wille et al., 2024a; Wille et al., 2024b). In general, ARs currently contribute positively to Antarctica’s surface mass balance and are projected to enhance this role in the future, helping to mitigate global SLR (Medley and Thomas, 2019; Dalaiden et al., 2020; Barthélemy et al., 2025). However, their net impact remains uncertain, as extreme AR events may destabilize ice shelves and offset these gains in a future warmer climate (Wille et al., 2025).
ARs can also strongly influence polar sea ice systems by altering sea ice thickness, concentration, and extent in marginal ice zones through radiative effects, precipitation, and surface winds, thereby affecting global climate and ice sheet dynamics (Liang et al., 2023). For instance, warm snowfall induced by ARs during the nighttime can act as an insulating layer, reducing cold air intrusion and inhibiting sea ice refreezing (Francis et al., 2020). Also, ARs can trigger the formation of offshore polynyas, regulating atmosphere-ocean interactions (Francis et al., 2020). Given the slow recovery of Antarctic sea ice following its dramatic decline in 2016 (Fogt et al., 2022), the long-term trends of AR activity and their impacts on sea ice warrant further investigation.
4 What does Antarctic ice loss imply for global coastal regions?
A key motivation for Antarctic research is the significant global impact that Antarctic ice loss could exert. Between 1992 and 2017, Antarctic ice loss resulted in 7.6 ± 3.9 mm of global SLR (Shepherd, 2018). AIS melting accounted for only 1.6% of global SLR between 1997 and 2001; however, its contribution has increased to 7.9% between 2017 and 2020 (Otosaka et al., 2023). By 2100, Antarctica alone is projected to contribute up to 0.34 m of the total 1.01 m global SLR under SSP5-8.5 (Figure 1; baseline 1995-2014). Moreover, SLR is not occurring uniformly, and certain coastal regions are at greater risk than others. Except for the Arctic region, the regional variability of SLR is primarily controlled by the density structure of the oceans, which is influenced by variations in temperature and salinity (Bindoff etal., 2007). Non-climatic factors related to the response of the solid Earth to land ice melt also affect regional SLR (Stammer et al., 2013), and vertical land motion can cause further sea level variations at the local scale (relative SLR; Wöppelmann and Marcos, 2012). Coastal hazards are more closely linked to regional or relative SLR (Tay et al., 2022), while local vulnerability is further shaped by factors such as geographic location, exposure to localized natural hazards, as well as population density and socioeconomic status (Oyenuga et al., 2025).
Sea-level rise will heighten flooding risk in low-lying coastal regions globally by amplifying high tides and storm surges from low-pressure systems and strong winds, often triggered by local extreme weather (Muis et al., 2016). Between 1980 and 2017, storm surges along the coastlines of southern Chinese and Vietnamese increased by up to 1 m (Wood et al., 2023). Countries such as low-lying Bangladesh, already affected by monsoon-driven riverine flooding, are increasingly vulnerable to the compounding impacts of SLR and more intense precipitation events (Oyenuga et al., 2025). In coastal Europe, the matching trend of the SLR and storm surge extremes between 1960 and 2018 further underscores the increasing likelihood of compound coastal hazards (Calafat et al., 2022). In the U.S., accelerated SLR along the Southeast and Gulf Coasts from 2010 to 2022 (Figure 1d), coupled with recent record-breaking hurricane seasons, has amplified storm impacts and coastal flooding (Yin, 2023). Besides the hurricane and extratropical cyclones, meridional winds and low barometric pressure during ARs along the U.S. West Coast also contribute to storm surge, with 10%–63% of high-tide flooding events coinciding with ARs (Piecuch et al., 2022).
Another consequence of SLR is saltwater intrusion into groundwater, which exacerbates water stress and reduces the productivity of farmland in coastal regions that often serve as economic hubs and are major consumers of freshwater (Mondal et al., 2023; Zamrsky et al., 2024). Under a high-emission scenario, approximately 60 million people living within 10 km of the current coastline are projected to lose about 5% of their freshwater groundwater resources due to SLR (Zamrsky et al., 2024). This issue affects more than 100 countries worldwide and is particularly severe in the U.S., China, India, Australia, the Mekong Delta, the Mediterranean coast, and the Nile Delta (Su et al., 2025). Among these regions, Vietnam is projected to experience the highest risk from saltwater intrusion, with inland penetration extending up to 53.9 km by 2050 under a high-emission scenario (Mueller et al., 2024). Between 2011 and 2018, the largest inland shifts of the saltwater-freshwater interface in the U.S. were reported in South Florida (Su et al., 2025). Across the Delmarva Peninsula on the U.S. East Coast, saltwater intrusion onto coastal farmlands has harmed agricultural activity, with visible salt patches nearly doubling between 2011 and 2017, leading to significant profit losses (Mondal et al., 2023). Along the U.S. west coast, California lacks natural barriers such as coral reefs or mangroves, leaving it exposed to erosion and saline seawater intrusion that threatens groundwater, an essential resource that supplies about 40% of the state’s average water use and an even greater share during droughts (Befus et al., 2020). Notably, saltwater intrusion is further driven by storm surges and high-tide flooding (Paldor and Michael, 2021), especially for major cities, reinforcing the overall impacts of SLR.
Taking socioeconomic impacts into consideration, Small Island Developing States (SIDS) in the Caribbean and Pacific Islands, which have limited land area and resources, face severe threats from SLR and have limited capacity to adapt to a changing climate (Oyenuga et al., 2025). Densely populated urban centers such as Jakarta comprise only a small fraction of the world’s total coastline but have the potential to impact billions of people due to escalating risks from coastal inundation, land subsidence, and extreme weather (Nicholls et al., 2021). As of 2018, ∼10% of the global population resided within 5 km of the coastline, with these numbers projected to increase in the near future, placing more people at risk from SLR (Cosby et al., 2024). Moreover, in economically important regions, SLR exerts significant impacts, exacerbating existing extreme events and leading to more substantial economic losses (Huang and Swain, 2022; Moftakhari et al., 2015; Jevrejeva et al., 2023). Currently, European economies are heavily affected by regional SLR, with strong spatial disparities (Cortés Arbués et al., 2024). Another strong evidence is Hurricane Sandy in 2012, when approximately U.S. $8 billion in economic losses were attributed to human-induced SLR, which expanded the extent of flooding (Strauss et al., 2021).
Under a high-emission scenario, projected GDP losses for the European Union and United Kingdom reach approximately €872 billion by 2100, with particularly severe impacts in parts of Italy, such as Veneto and Emilia-Romagna (Cortés Arbués et al., 2024). China’s economic center, Shanghai, could also face severe risk of tropical cyclone-induced coastal flood inundation in the future (Yin et al., 2021). The U.S. East Coast could suffer greater cumulative damage from the combined effects of storm surges and regional SLR, with the impacts of SLR potentially surpassing those of storms themselves (Strauss et al., 2021; Marsooli et al., 2019). On the other coastal side of the U.S., a future SLR of 1.8 m, combined with recurring storms, could affect over 480,000 California residents and property valued at U.S.$119 billion (Barnard et al., 2019). In Los Angeles County alone (e.g., Supplementary Figure S1c), between 197,000 and 874,000 in population and between U.S.$36 billion and U.S.$108 billion in property value are currently at risk of experiencing flooding exceeding 30 cm (Sanders et al., 2023). By 2100, SLR along the U.S. Southeast Coast is projected to reach nearly 2 m under a high-emission scenario, and as with other coastlines globally, a large portion of the freshwater contribution could originate from Antarctica (Supplementary Figures S2a,b). Accurate estimation of regional SLR is critical for areas with dense populations and major economic activity, as well as those already exposed to localized natural hazards, where even small increases can exacerbate risks. Thus, reducing uncertainties in Antarctic ice loss projections is essential for refining these regional estimates.
5 Discussion: research gaps and future plans
The Greenland Ice Sheet has recently entered a persistent state of mass loss, attributable to both increased ice discharge at glacier outlets and a reduction in positive mass added to the ice sheet via snowfall. If no action is taken, Antarctica, which contains over 9 times more ice mass than Greenland (
Fretwell et al., 2013;
Morlighem et al., 2017), could also be in jeopardy. The stability of the AIS is jeopardized by ongoing climate change, and ARs add further uncertainties to the challenging task of projecting SLR. The most pressing issues for Antarctic research are:
Prediction/Projections of Extreme Weather Events, including ARs: Antarctica faces a significant challenge in predicting extreme weather events (Siegert et al. 2023), such as ARs (Wille et al., 2025). Timely predictions and trend projections over timescales ranging from decades to centuries need to be developed. Several international initiatives could help address this task, such as the Polar Coupled Analysis and Prediction for Services (PCAPS)1 project, which aims to improve environmental forecasting for both the Arctic and Antarctic regions.
Understanding Unexpected Changes: The Antarctic research community is grappling with the occurrence, drivers, and impacts of unexpected change in Antarctica. Process-based studies are needed to investigate the underlying mechanisms driving these changes (Fricker et al., 2025), particularly the interactions among different Earth system components.
Uncertainties in Ice Sheet Stability: Current global model projections for ice shelves and ice sheet stability under atmospheric and oceanic forcing have significant uncertainties. Research is required to elucidate the physical mechanisms and improve the accuracy of these projections.
Development of Regional Coupled Models for Ice-Ocean-Atmosphere Interactions: Accurate prediction of the evolution of the AIS necessitates the development of high-resolution regional coupled models that account for resolved interactions between ice, ocean, and atmosphere.
Enhanced Observation Coverage in the Southern Hemisphere: International collaboration is needed to enhance observational networks and retrieval algorithms, including in-situ and remote sensing, radiosonde launches, ship-based campaigns, and satellite data, to improve temporal and spatial coverage over Antarctica and the high-latitude Southern Hemisphere. Previous efforts include the Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) satellite mission (Gille et al., 2025), the Year of Polar Prediction in the Southern Hemisphere (YOPP-SH; Bromwich et al., 2024), and other ongoing global efforts such as Antarctica InSync2 that aim to synchronize research across Antarctica and the Southern Ocean. Improved collaboration among existing observational networks is also essential.
Understanding the global coastal impacts of Antarctic ice mass change involves examining the complex interplay between different Earth system components, emphasizing the need for the communication across diverse fields—meteorology, oceanography, glaciology, and groundwater hydrology—via promotion of collaboration, prioritization of critical research requirements, and exploration of opportunities for seed funding. International efforts to expand the focus on meteorological drivers, especially ARs, in remote regions like Antarctica will further advance SLR research and support effective climate change mitigation strategies for coastal regions.
Statements
Data availability statement
The datasets presented in this study can be found in online repositories. The names of the repository/repositories and accession number(s) can be found below: CW3E enhanced gridded AR scale dataset for Antarctica: https://amrdcdata.ssec.wisc.edu/thredds/catalog/Polar_WRF/Gridded_Polar_ARScale_V2/catalog.html.
Author contributions
XZ: Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal Analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Writing – original draft, Writing – review and editing. FR: Conceptualization, Formal Analysis, Funding acquisition, Investigation, Project administration, Resources, Supervision, Writing – original draft, Writing – review and editing. DB: Conceptualization, Formal Analysis, Funding acquisition, Investigation, Project administration, Resources, Supervision, Writing – original draft, Writing – review and editing. SG: Conceptualization, Formal Analysis, Funding acquisition, Investigation, Methodology, Project administration, Resources, Supervision, Writing – original draft, Writing – review and editing. IG: Conceptualization, Formal Analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Writing – original draft, Writing – review and editing. MM: Conceptualization, Formal Analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Writing – original draft, Writing – review and editing. DL: Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal Analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Resources, Writing – original draft, Writing – review and editing. IC: Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal Analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Resources, Writing – original draft, Writing – review and editing. RS: Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal Analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Validation, Visualization, Writing – original draft, Writing – review and editing. JW: Investigation, Methodology, Writing – original draft, Writing – review and editing. ZZ: Data curation, Formal Analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Validation, Visualization, Writing – original draft, Writing – review and editing.
Funding
The author(s) declared that financial support was received for this work and/or its publication. We would like to acknowledge the California Department of Water Resources Atmospheric Rivers Program Phase III for support for the development of the original AR Scale and associated products (contract 4600014294). We are thankful for the AWS station observations collected at Dome C by the Antarctic Meteorological Research and Data Center (AMRDC). D.H.B. is supported by the National Science Foundation (NSF) under grant OPP-2205398. XZ is grateful to the NSF for support under award OPP-2229392 and OPP-2331992. S.T.G. and M.R.M received support from NSF grant OPP-1936222. DL received support from NSF grant OPP-2130203. I.V.G. thanks the support by the strategic funding to CIIMAR (UIDB/04423/2020, UIDP/04423/2020), 2021.03140.CEECIND, projects ATLACE (CIRCNA/CAC/0273/2019), MAPS (2022.09201.PTDC) and Portuguese Polar Program (PROPOLAR) through national funds provided by FCT–Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia.
Conflict of interest
The author(s) declared that this work was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest.
Generative AI statement
The author(s) declared that generative AI was not used in the creation of this manuscript.
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Supplementary material
The Supplementary Material for this article can be found online at: https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2026.1761959/full#supplementary-material
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Summary
Keywords
Antarctica, atmospheric river, coastal hazard, extreme weather, global sea level rise
Citation
Zou X, Ralph FM, Bromwich DH, Gille ST, Gorodetskaya IV, Mazloff MR, Lubin D, Cerovečki I, Sun R, Wille JD and Zhang Z (2026) Antarctica’s uncertain future: global sea-level rise from oceanic and atmospheric forcing, with a focus on atmospheric rivers. Front. Earth Sci. 14:1761959. doi: 10.3389/feart.2026.1761959
Received
08 December 2025
Revised
06 December 2025
Accepted
09 January 2026
Published
09 February 2026
Volume
14 - 2026
Edited by
Dongliang Luo, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), China
Reviewed by
Mirong Song, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), China
Updates
Copyright
© 2026 Zou, Ralph, Bromwich, Gille, Gorodetskaya, Mazloff, Lubin, Cerovečki, Sun, Wille and Zhang.
This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
*Correspondence: Xun Zou, x4zou@ucsd.edu; F. Martin Ralph, mralph@ucsd.edu)
Disclaimer
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