ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Environ. Sci.
Sec. Land Use Dynamics
Volume 13 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fenvs.2025.1573145
Simulation and Assessment of the Risk of Carbon Sink Loss in Hubei Province, China
Provisionally accepted
- 1Information Center, Department of Natural Resources of Hubei Province, Wuhan, China
- 2School of Geography and Information Engineering, China University of Geosciences Wuhan, Wuhan, Hubei Province, China
- 3School of Public Administration, China University of Geosciences Wuhan, Wuhan, Hubei Province, China
- 4Ningxia Natural Resources Survey and Investigation Institute, Yinchuan, China
- 5Foshan Surveying Mapping and Geoinformation Research Institute Co., Ltd, Foshan, China
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Predicting future land use/cover changes and their impact on carbon storage is crucial for achieving China's "Dual Carbon" goals. Current studies face challenges of low resolution and difficulties in fine-scale simulations. This study developed a novel large-scale, high-resolution approach for estimating and simulating carbon sinks and storage changes based on the PLUS model, incorporating cropland and grassland management practices' effects on soil organic carbon, and utilizing block parallel computing. Results show that from 2020 to 2030 and 2060, Hubei Province's croplands and construction lands are the main land types undergoing transition while forestlands steadily increase. Cropland management carbon sinks are highest under the natural development scenario. Grassland management carbon sinks are highest in the ecological priority scenario. Forest management carbon emissions peak under ecological priority. Based on simulation results, early warnings were issued to counties with high carbon sequestration and emission risks. The study proposes a high-resolution carbon storagecarbon stock estimation method and implementing large-scale risk warning systems. These findings provide crucial evidence for land policy formulation and achieving "Dual Carbon" goals, offering valuable data support for illegal land use regulation.
Keywords: Plus model, High-resolution simulation, Hubei province, carbon sink, carbon stock
Received: 08 Feb 2025; Accepted: 02 May 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Li, NING, Shu, Xia, Yuan, Shen, Yu and Liang. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence: Guobin Yuan, School of Geography and Information Engineering, China University of Geosciences Wuhan, Wuhan, 430074, Hubei Province, China
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