ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Environ. Sci.
Sec. Environmental Economics and Management
Volume 13 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fenvs.2025.1634195
This article is part of the Research TopicInteractions Between Rice Production and Climate ChangeView all 3 articles
Climate Shocks and Price Dynamics: The Role of Shinano River in Transmitting ENSO Effects to Japanese Rice Markets
Provisionally accepted
- China Agricultural University, Beijing, China
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Objective: Since 2024, Japan has experienced a rapid surge in rice prices. This study aims to explore the underlying climatic drivers of this price increase, with a particular focus on the potential impact of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO).Methods:High-frequency climate and market data are integrated, and regression models are constructed in distinct stages along with spatial econometric models to systematically assess the impact of ENSO on Japan’s rice market. The NINO index serves as the primary explanatory variable representing ENSO intensity.Results:The findings reveal that ENSO events indirectly affect rice prices in Niigata by altering hydrological conditions in the middle reaches of the Shinano River. These disruptions trigger price co-movement and spatial spillover effects across different regions, resulting in heterogeneous impacts on rice price volatility throughout Japan. Moreover, climate shocks are amplified through hydrological systems in rice-producing areas, ultimately influencing the national grain market.Contributions:This study provides a natural explanation for recent fluctuations in Japanese rice prices and presents new empirical evidence on the climatic determinants of food price volatility. It also offers actionable policy recommendations to mitigate climate-related risks and enhance food security through climate-responsive agricultural strategies.ks and enhance food security through climate-responsive agricultural strategies.
Keywords: El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Rice prices, Japanese agriculture, Hydrological resources, Climate Change
Received: 23 May 2025; Accepted: 19 Jun 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Zhu. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence: Haoran Zhu, China Agricultural University, Beijing, China
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