Bridging the Watershed–Urban Disconnect: A Mixed-Methods Analysis of Flood Risk Perception and Preparedness in Sindh, Pakistan

Wang SuyuhanAbdul Rasool Khoso^*

• Hohai University School of Public Administration, Nanjing, China

Abstract Introduction: Extreme flooding events are increasing and posing major challenges for developing countries due to climate change, where a clear disconnect exists between how floods develop at the watershed level and how communities perceive the risks they face. Thus, this study seeks to examine the disconnect between watershed-scale flood generation and community-scale risk perception and preparedness in Sindh, Pakistan. Methodology: This research employed a mixed method approach containing 400 questionnaires as a survey using 10 point-Likert scale for quantitative approach and 8 in-depth interviews for qualitative data. The SPSS for statistical analysis and NVIVO for thematic analysis were included for data analysis. Results: The results revealed, education level significantly influenced causal attribution of floods (χ²=35.82, p<.001). Only 6.7% of respondents with no formal education implicated watershed-scale causes, compared to 56.7% of those with a bachelor's degree. Hierarchical regression identified watershed awareness, self-efficacy, and trust in institutions as key predictors of preparedness, explaining 41% of the variance (R²=0.41). Self-efficacy partially mediated the link between watershed perception and preparedness (indirect effect β=0.08, 95% CI [0.041, 0.129]). Thematically, qualitative data identified inadequate local infrastructure as a primary community concern, with repeated losses exacerbating psychological vulnerability. Conclusion: The study concludes that, flood was deemed to be the local cause indicating deficiencies in infrastructure from the lower education residents, while, the watershed causes were discussed from the higher education respondents. Government failure was deemed to be the problematic towards flood. The study recommends tailored risk communication, watershed education, and transparent governance to enhance flood resilience.