ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Environ. Sci.
Sec. Environmental Policy and Governance
This article is part of the Research TopicNavigating Socioeconomic Complexities in the Global Energy TransitionView all 5 articles
How does Climate Policy Uncertainty influence Energy Consumption Transition in China: Evidence from 277 Cities
Provisionally accepted
- 1Wuhan University, Wuhan, China
- 2Polus International College, chengdu, China
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Energy consumption transition is fundamental to achieving carbon neutrality without sacrificing development in developing economies. China's experience under its dual-carbon targets and evolving climate governance provides a valuable case. Using panel data from 277 Chinese prefecture-level cities from 2007 to 2023, this study applies two-way fixed effects models and spatial Durbin models to assess the impact of climate policy uncertainty on urban energy consumption transition. The results show that higher climate policy uncertainty significantly impedes energy consumption transition, particularly in resource-based, highly marketized, and rapidly developing eastern cities. This inhibitory effect operates through both supply and demand channels, weakening industrial chain resilience, suppressing corporate green innovation disclosure, and dampening public environmental awareness. Spatial analysis further reveals substantial negative spillovers, with the effect of climate policy uncertainty on neighboring energy consumption transition roughly six times stronger than its local impact. The findings highlight that proactively managing climate policy uncertainty is essential for enabling a stable and effective energy consumption transition, offering a practically relevant reference for developing countries to anticipate and manage governance challenges on the path to sustainable growth.
Keywords: carbon neutrality, Climate policy uncertainty, Dual Suppression Mechanism, Energy Consumption Transition, Spatial spillover effect
Received: 11 Nov 2025; Accepted: 12 Dec 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Wei, Xiao and Sun. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence:
Zeliang Xiao
Liyang Sun
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