ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Environ. Sci.
Sec. Drylands
Compound Extremes: Variability, Drivers, and Coping Mechanisms over SemiArid Catchments in Central India
Provisionally accepted
- 1University of Minnesota Duluth, Duluth, United States
- 2Indian Institute of Science Education and Research Mohali, Manauli, India
- 3Central University of South Bihar, Gaya, India
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3Rainfall and temperature variability serve as crucial indicators of hydroclimatic hazards, including 4floods, droughts, heatwaves, and cold spells. While such events may arise from a single variable 5reaching extreme levels, they often result from the interplay of multiple climatic factors. This 6study examines the spatio-temporal variability of compound extreme events (CEEs) over the 7semi-arid Ken and Betwa River catchments in Central India. Although these regions primarily 8receive rainfall during the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) season, they have experienced a 9post-2000 drying trend along with rising temperatures. A significant negative correlation between 10rainfall and temperature indicates rainfall suppression under hotter conditions due to enhanced 11atmospheric stability and reduced moisture availability. The analysis further shows that extreme 12wet and dry events have declined in the Betwa basin, while the Ken basin exhibits an increase 13in extreme dry events and a decrease in wet extremes. Cold extremes (T10) have also shown 14a decreasing trend across both regions. Investigation of different combinations of rainfall and 15temperature extremes reveals that moderate and extreme warm-dry CEEs have intensified over 16the past four decades, emerging as the most dominant compound events. The persistence of 17these events is largely driven by wind patterns and convective inhibition energy (CIN) in the 18case of moderate events, and by moisture transport and divergence for extreme ones. The 19intensification of such CEEs poses substantial risks to regional agriculture, eco-hydrological 20systems, and socioeconomic stability. Composite Resilience Index (CRI) was developed at the 21district level, integrating indicators like the Human Development Index, Multidimensional Poverty 22Index, and literacy rates. Results reveal that Ashoknagar, Shivpuri, Lalitpur, and Chhatarpur are 23the relatively low-resilience districts, while Bhopal, Sagar, Jhansi, and Hamirpur exhibit higher 24resilience. Overall, the findings underscore the urgent need for climate-informed policies and 25adaptive strategies to ensure water sustainability and socio-economic stability in the Ken–Betwa 26river catchments under a warming climate.
Keywords: Climate Change, Compound extreme, extreme events, Ken-Betwa, Semi-arid catchment
Received: 18 Oct 2025; Accepted: 06 Feb 2026.
Copyright: © 2026 KUMAR, Kumari and SARTHI. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence: AMIT KUMAR
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