ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Environ. Sci.
Sec. Land Use Dynamics
This article is part of the Research TopicDynamics of Land Use and Carbon Emissions in the Context of Carbon Neutrality and Carbon Peaking, Volume IIView all 7 articles
Scenario-based assessment of land-use change and urban carbon storage: Spatiotemporal dynamics and drivers in Beijing, China
Provisionally accepted
- 1Hunan First Normal University, Changsha, China
- 2Central South University School of Architecture and Art, Changsha, China
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Understanding how land-use change reshapes terrestrial carbon storage (CS) is important for China's dual-carbon goals in rapidly urbanizing regions. Taking Beijing as a megacity case, we integrated GIS-based land-use analysis with the InVEST CS module to quantify CS dynamics from 1980 to 2020. We then used the Geodetector to identify dominant drivers of spatial heterogeneity and coupled a Markov chain with the PLUS model to simulate land use and CS in 2030 under alternative development pathways. Results show that cultivated land, forest land, and construction land dominated Beijing's land-use structure. From 2000 to 2020, cropland decreased by 2,240.25 km2, while forest land and construction land increased by 177.22 km2 and 2,130.58 km2, respectively. Total CS followed a "decline–rebound" trajectory, decreasing from 2.9462×108 t (1980) to 2.7828×108 t (2010) and then rising to 2.8352×108 t (2020). Spatially, CS exhibited significant positive spatial autocorrelation throughout the study period (Global Moran's I = 0.883-0.900), with high–high clusters concentrated in the mountainous northwest and low–low clusters mainly distributed across the built-up plains in the center and southeast, as further confirmed by LISA and hot/cold spot patterns. Geodetector results indicate that topography and climate dominate CS heterogeneity, with slope showing the strongest explanatory power (q = 0.62). Scenario simulations suggest that CS would increase more under a carbon-sink priority scenario (+2.71%) than under an inertial-development scenario (+1.76%) by 2030, highlighting the value of ecological-priority land-use strategies for carbon-sink enhancement.
Keywords: Beijing, Carbon stock estimation, Geodetector, InVEST model, Land-use dynamics, Markov-PLUS simulation
Received: 29 Nov 2025; Accepted: 26 Jan 2026.
Copyright: © 2026 Li and Li. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence: Chuzhi Li
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