Estimating the Climate Change-Driven Global Distribution of Fusarium proliferatum and Mycotoxin Risk Assessment Under Future Warming Scenarios

Aya I. Tagyan^1*Sara AlAshaal²Dalal Hussain M. ALkhalifah³Walaa Rabie⁴Wael N. Hozzein¹

• ¹Faculty of Science, Beni-Suef University, Beni-Suef, Egypt
• ²Research Lab of Biogeography and Wildlife Parasitology, Faculty of Science, Ain Shams University, Ain Shams University, Cairo, Egypt
• ³Department of Biology, College of Science, Princess Nourah bint Abdulrahman University, P.O. Box 84428, Princess Nourah bint Abdulrahman University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
• ⁴Department of Plant Pathology, Plant Pathology Research Institute, Agricultural Research Center, Giza, Egypt., Giza, Egypt

Fusarium proliferatum is a globally distributed fungal pathogen of significant agricultural importance, causing substantial crop losses and producing hazardous mycotoxins that threaten food security and human health. Climate change is expected to alter the geographic distribution of plant pathogens, potentially expanding their range into previously unsuitable regions. This study employed Maximum Entropy species distribution modeling to assess the potential impacts of climate change on the global distribution of F. proliferatum under different emission scenarios. Species occurrence data (n = 347) were obtained from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility database and subjected to spatial filtering to reduce sampling bias. Temperature-related bioclimatic variables were identified as the primary environmental determinants through systematic variable selection and correlation analysis. The MaxEnt model demonstrated excellent predictive performance with an Area Under the Curve of 0.844. Current distribution modeling revealed high environmental suitability in tropical and subtropical regions, with moderate suitability in temperate zones. Future projections under moderate and severe emission scenarios for 2050 and 2070 indicated significant poleward range expansion, particularly into northern Europe, northern Asia, and northern North America. The severe emission scenario projected the most dramatic changes, with extensive expansion of highly suitable environments into previously marginal regions by 2070. Temperature seasonality emerged as the most widespread limiting factor globally. These findings suggest that climate change will substantially increase the geographic range of F. proliferatum, introducing mycotoxin contamination risks to new agricultural regions and threatening food security in temperate zones previously unexposed to this pathogen. The results provide crucial insights for developing proactive surveillance, biosecurity measures, and adaptive management strategies to mitigate the expanding threat of this economically important pathogen under changing climatic conditions.