ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Nutr.
Sec. Nutritional Epidemiology
Volume 12 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fnut.2025.1611078
Unveiling the Global Impact of Hypertensive Heart Disease Among Individuals Aged≥65 years :Metabolic Risk Factors and Future Projections for 2050
Provisionally accepted
- Ningbo Medical Centre Lihuili Hospital, Ningbo, China
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Background Hypertensive heart disease (HHD) poses a substantial global public health burden, particularly among older adults. Characterizing its epidemiological profile and projecting future trends are crucial for informing targeted prevention and management strategies. Results In 2021, the global age-standardized prevalence rate of HHD was 148.32 (95%UI:117.32, 186.28) per 100,000 population. The age-standardized mortality rate was 16.32 (95%UI:13.76, 18.01) per 100,000, and the age-standardized DALYs rate was 301.58 (95%UI:255.06, 332.06) per 100,000. Join-point analysis revealed an increasing trend in age-standardized prevalence rates between 1990 and 2021, while mortality and DALYs rates decreased. Decomposition analysis identified changes in epidemiological rates as the primary driver of the global increase in HHD deaths and DALYs over this period. Metabolic risks, particularly high systolic blood pressure, were significant contributors to HHD-related mortality and DALYs, with a pronounced impact in high-SDI regions. Regions including the United States and Taiwan (China) exhibited the highest effective disparity, indicating substantial potential for improving HHD management relative to their SDI. Projections using the BAPC model indicate a continued rise in HHD incidence and global deaths by 2050. Conclusion Despite declining mortality/DALYs, HHD burden grows in older adults globally. Rising prevalence and projected incidence/deaths demand enhanced prevention. Metabolic risk dominance (high-SDI regions) prioritizes blood pressure control. Marked inequalities (US, Taiwan[China]) reveal opportunities for optimized resource allocation. Findings support tailored strategies to mitigate HHD impact.
Keywords: Hypertensive heart disease, Bayesian Age-Time-Cohort Prediction Model, public health nutrition, Frontier analysis, metabolic risks
Received: 13 Apr 2025; Accepted: 15 Oct 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Ning, Qian, Weifeng and Bingyu. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence:
Xu Weifeng, lhlxuweifeng@nbu.edu.cn
Wang Bingyu, lhlwangbingyu@nbu.edu.cn
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