ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Nutr.
Sec. Nutritional Epidemiology
Volume 12 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fnut.2025.1633788
Trends and Projections of the Disease Burden of Vitamin A Deficiency in China from 1990 to 2021
Provisionally accepted
- School of Basic Medical Sciences ＆ School of Nursing, Chengdu University, Chengdu, China
Select one of your emails
You have multiple emails registered with Frontiers:
Notify me on publication
Please enter your email address:
If you already have an account, please login
You don't have a Frontiers account ? You can register here
Objective: The current systematic research on the disease burden of Vitamin A deficiency in China is limited.To analyze the trends in the disease burden of Vitamin A Deficiency (VAD) in China from 1990 to 2021 and predict future trends from 2022 to 2050, providing a scientific basis for the prevention of VAD in China. Methods: Based on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) data, we extracted incidence, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for VAD in China from 1990 to 2021. The Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze temporal trends, calculating the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) and its 95% confidence interval (CI). The Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) model was employed to integrate age, period, and cohort effects for predicting China's VAD disease burden from 2022 to 2050. Results: From 1990 to 2021, the Age-Standardized Incidence Rate (ASIR), Age-Standardized Prevalence Rate (ASPR), and Age-Standardized Disability-Adjusted Life Year Rate (ASR-DALYs) of VAD in China showed a significant downward trend, with Estimated Annual Percentage Change (EAPC) values of -5.31 (95% CI: -5.65 to -4.96), -5.31 (95% CI: -5.66 to -4.96), and -3.86 (95% CI:-4.84 to -2.86), respectively. The disease burden was higher in females than in males and higher in children than in adults. According to the BAPC model, the ASR-DALYs of VAD in China are expected to stabilize from 2022 to 2050, with a gradual decline from 3.17/100,000 in 2022 to 2.70/100,000 in 2050. The ASIR and ASPR are projected to continue declining, with ASIR decreasing
Keywords: Vitamin A Deficiency, disease burden, trend analysis, prediction, BAPC model
Received: 23 May 2025; Accepted: 01 Aug 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Chen, Gu and Peng. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence: Rong Peng, School of Basic Medical Sciences ＆ School of Nursing, Chengdu University, Chengdu, China
Disclaimer: All claims expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of their affiliated organizations, or those of the publisher, the editors and the reviewers. Any product that may be evaluated in this article or claim that may be made by its manufacturer is not guaranteed or endorsed by the publisher.