ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Nutr.
Sec. Nutritional Epidemiology
Volume 12 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fnut.2025.1658507
Trends and Forecasts of Vitamin A Deficiency Burden in China, 1990-2035
Provisionally accepted
- 1Seventh People's Hospital of Shanghai, Shanghai, China
- 2Department of Critical Care Medicine, 上海市, China
- 3Department of Traditional Medicine, shanghaishi, China
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The purpose of this study was to analyze the changes in the disease burden caused by vitamin A deficiency in China from 1990 to 2021 based on the Global Burden of Disease(GBD)Database, and to predict the disease burden trend in 2035 using the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model.Based on modeled estimates from the GBD 2021 database, this study employed Joinpoint regression to calculate Annual Percentage Change (APC) and assess long-term trends in VAD burden. Disaggregated analysis quantified the contributions of population growth, population aging, and epidemiological changes.The BAPC model was used to predict incidence, prevalence, and DALYs for 2035.From 1990 to 2021, VAD incidence and prevalence significantly declined across all age groups in China, most notably in children under 5 (-6.23% average annual change). Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) improved substantially in children and adolescents. However, DALYs rebounded among those aged 50-74 years.Significant age and sex disparities exist. Children under 5 bear the heaviest burden. Women have higher incidence and prevalence than men, while DALY rates are lower in men across all age groups. While overall trends in incidence and prevalence declined, DALYs showed recent increases.Decomposition analysis revealed that favorable epidemiological shifts primarily drove the decline in incidence and prevalence. Conversely, population aging increased the number of cases and DALYs.Projections to 2035 indicate continued declines in incidence, prevalence, and DALYs across all age groups. However, the rate of decrease is projected to be slower among middle-aged and older populations compared to younger groups.This study reveals the complex dynamics and shifting burden of VAD in China. It affirms past prevention successes while highlighting new challenges, particularly the increasing disease burden driven by population aging. To achieve "Healthy China 2030" goals, future strategies require a more refined, lifecycle approach focusing on vulnerable groups (children, pregnant women, the elderly), strengthening surveillance and evaluation systems, and promoting research into pathogenesis and technological innovation to meet evolving public health needs.
Keywords: Global burden of disease, Vitamin A Deficiency, China, Incidence, projection
Received: 02 Jul 2025; Accepted: 08 Aug 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Lei, Ye, Liu, You, Han and Zhang. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence: Ming Lei, Seventh People's Hospital of Shanghai, Shanghai, China
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