Development and Validation of a Novel Nutrition-Inflammation Prognostic Score for Predicting 30-Day Mortality in Critically Ill Stroke Patients

Junzhuo Li¹Jiajia Yang^2*

• ¹Chongqing Jiulongpo District Yuzhou Road Street Community Health Service Center, Chongqing, China, Chongqing, China
• ²The First Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, China

Objectives: Malnutrition and systemic inflammation are common in critically ill stroke patients and contribute to poor outcomes. This study aimed to develop and validate a novel nutrition-inflammation prognostic score to predict critically ill stroke patients 30-day mortality and compare its performance with existing scores.: In this retrospective study, a total of 926 critically ill stroke patients were included. The training cohort (n = 725) was used to develop the prognostic score. Feature selection was performed using three machine learning algorithms: LASSO, SVM-RFE, and Boruta. Four key biomarkershigh-sensitivity C-reactive protein, albumin, neutrophils, and D-Dimerwere identified. Based on these variables, a novel prognostic score, CAND, was constructed, visualized as a nomogram, and deployed as an online calculator. Cox regression analyses assessed the association between CAND defined high-risk groups and 30-day mortality, in comparison with existing nutrition-inflammation scores. The prognostic performance of CAND and these established scores was further evaluated using time-dependent receiver operating characteristic Critically Ill 删除[张]: (ROC) curves, concordance index (C-index) and decision curve analysis (DCA). External validation was performed on 201 patients. Results: Higher CAND scores were independently associated with increased 30-day mortality risk in both the training cohort [hazard ratio (HR) = 3.273; 95% CI: 2.413-4.437; P < 0.001] and the validation cohort (HR = 3.608; 95% CI: 1.888-6.894, P < 0.001). CAND demonstrated strong discriminative ability and prognostic performance, with a C-index of 0.863 and time-dependent area under the curve(AUC) of 0.727 in the training cohort, and a C-index of 0.831 and AUC of 0.691 in the validation cohort. Compared to existing nutrition-inflammation scores, CAND consistently outperformed them in both cohorts, as further supported by time-dependent ROC and DCA.The CAND score, based on four objective biomarkers selected via machine learning, is a reliable and practical tool for early mortality risk stratification in critically ill stroke patients. Its application may inform timely clinical decision-making and targeted nutritional strategies.