Assessing the vulnerability of urban public health system based on a hybrid model

Lingmei Fu¹Zhirong Wang¹Yutao Zhu²Benbu Liang²Ting Qian¹Haiyun Ma^1*

• ¹Nanjing Tech University, Nanjing, China
• ²Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan, Hubei Province, China

The occurrence of public health emergencies brought direct threats to economic and social development. The vulnerability of urban public health system is a major cause of public health emergency outbreaks. It is significant to assess urban public health system vulnerability.Methods Considering the uncertainty in the vulnerability assessment process, a novel hybrid model is proposed. Stage 1 involves the development of an indicator system incorporating comprehensive vulnerability factors based on literature review and expert opinion. Stage 2 involves the calculation of indicators weights using Bayesian-best worst method. Bayesian-best worst method is a novel probabilistic group decision model that incorporates Bayesian statistics and best worst method. Stage 3 involves the determination of vulnerability level employing cloud model. Cloud model can combine the randomness and fuzziness of assessment to deal with uncertainty. To present the application of the model, Shanghai's public health system vulnerability is assessed. Moreover, sensitivity analysis is conducted to verify the effectiveness and robustness of the model.There are 18 factors that affect the vulnerability of urban public health system. 'Poor coordination and cooperation among various personnel', 'Insufficient information assurance', 'Low public quality' and 'Low quality of competent department and institution staffs' are the main influential factors of vulnerability.The hybrid model is effective and robust. This study facilitates the reduction of urban public health system vulnerability and thus improves urban public health risk management.