Depopulation and ageing -challenges for Croatia's climate resilience

Ana-Maria Boromisa^*

• Institute for Development and International Relations, Zagreb - Centar, Croatia

Climate change and the implementation of mitigation and adaptation policies have significant socioeconomic impacts. Conversely, socio-economic developments influence the ability to design and enforce climate policies, creating a feedback loop. This paper examines the feedback loop between demographic trends and capacity to implement climate policies based on Croatia case study. The starting hypothesis is that human capital limitations critically hinder climate-resilient development in Croatia.Climate data and literature indicate that Croatia, a high income EU member, is experiencing warming 20% faster than the global average and ranks among the least climate-resilient high-income countries.A sector-specific analysis identifies the most critical sectors for Croatian climate resilient development based on their emission reduction potential, climate vulnerability and growth opportunities. Among these are sectors that contribute the most to GDP and employment-such as tourism, construction, and healthcare-which already suffer from significant labor shortages.The results indicate that a shrinking workforce is the key constraint for implementation of climate resilient development. Significant improvements in labour productivity, higher participation rates, integration of foreign workers in labour market and efforts to address skills shortages are necessary. This presents a challenge, given increasing damages from extreme climate events, ongoing depopulation, a limited supply of a highly educated workforce and low participation in lifelong learning. For climate-resilient development, it is essential to design policies that adequately address ageing and depopulation -both of which limit economic growth and reduce capacity for climate adaptation.Findings of the Croatian case offer insights for Mediterranean and island countries reliant on climate-sensitive sectors like tourism (e.g., Greece, Thailand). High-income yet low-resilience paradox is relevant for regions such as Southern Europe, Australia and California. EU membership highlights institutional misalignments between supranational climate agendas (e.g., the European Green Deal) and subnational demographic realities. These dynamics are relevant to aging societies (Japan, Germany) and post-industrial economies (Poland, Canada) navigating green transitions, emphasizing the need to integrate demographic strategies into climate governance.