ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. For. Glob. Change
Sec. Fire and Forests
This article is part of the Research TopicClimate Change, Forest Fire Risks, and Adaptation Strategies for Sustainable Ecosystem ManagementView all 4 articles
Forest Fire Risk Change Assessment Model Based on the Improved G1-CRITIC Method
Provisionally accepted
- 1Chang’an University, Xi'an, China
- 2PowerChina Northwest Engineering Co. Ltd, Xi'an, China
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In order to objectively grasp the historical pattern and future trend of forest fire risk, this paper constructed a forest fire risk change assessment model based on the improved G1-CRITIC method, integrating social, economic and natural multi-dimensional factors. This model serves as a valuable tool for assessing trends and determining the drivers of forest fire risk change. As a case study, the paper focuses on Huangu Town, located in Ankang City, Shaanxi Province, extracts multi-year remote sensing image data from 2013 to 2022, and utilizes social and economic data alongside survey data from annual reports published by the local government. These datasets are then subjected to the proposed model to evaluate forest fire risk change in the region. The findings demonstrate that by combining the analysis of Forest cover, Emergency response effectiveness, and the actual fire situation of the Forest fire area, the model suggested in this paper not only successfully reveals the spatial and temporal evolution law of forest fire risk and its driving mechanism, but also accurately satisfies the current forest fire risk assessment.The correctness and structural robustness of the model were further confirmed by the correlation study. Furthermore, it was discovered that forest fire risk is impacted by both natural and socioeconomic systems: natural causes dominate short-term variations, while socioeconomic influences control long-term trends. This paper establishes a theoretical foundation for phasing and sub-regional precision prevention and control of regional forest fire risk, as well as significant practical relevance for developing differentiated prevention and control measures.This model and its findings can be directly applied to the optimal allocation of local forest fire prevention resources and the dynamic adjustment of emergency response plans.
Keywords: Forest fire risk assessment, Improved G1-CRITIC method, remote sensing, Internal driving mechanism, distribution pattern
Received: 05 Aug 2025; Accepted: 28 Nov 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Yang, XU, Cheng, Song, He, Ma and Song. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence: RUI XU
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