ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Nutr.
Sec. Food Policy and Economics
Volume 12 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fnut.2025.1621928
This article is part of the Research TopicFood Systems for Nutrition: Converging Economic, Social, and Environmental SustainabilityView all 18 articles
Evaluating Climate-Resilient Food Systems Using ARDL Analysis: The role of Air Pollution, GHG Emissions, and Temperature Change in Bangladesh and China
Provisionally accepted
- Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, China
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The study explores the effects of temperature fluctuations, air pollution, and greenhouse gas emissions (GHGE) on food production and food security in China and Bangladesh. The data is used from 2000 to 2024. A composite score that includes Food Availability, Food Access, Food Stability, and Food Utilization metrics is used to quantify food security. The long-term cointegration was tested in this study using the auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) bound test cointegration approach, and the short-term connection between the modelled variables was examined using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. Additionally, the Ramsey RESET test and serial correlation are used in the study to ensure the reliability and validity of the model. The findings in Bangladesh show that while GDP per capita and the GDP deflator have a large and positive impact on food production, air pollution has a positive but statistically negligible effect. In contrast, there is a statistically significant negative effect of both temperature and GHGE.In terms of food security, temperature, air pollution, and GDP per capita all have favourable effects, whereas human capital and land availability have major negative consequences. In China, food production is positively correlated with temperature, GHGE, air pollution, and GDP per capita, with the exception of the GDP deflator, which is negatively correlated. However, food security is positively impacted by GDP per capita, land, and human capital, whereas it is adversely and dramatically impacted by temperature and air pollution. These results demonstrate how environmental stresses and agricultural outputs have complex and nation-specific connections.The report highlights the necessity of specific, climate-resilient strategies to protect food systems from the increasing threats of climate and environmental change.
Keywords: Food security, ARDL, Greenhouse gas emission, Food productin,, China
Received: 02 May 2025; Accepted: 26 Aug 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Sarwar. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence: Kiran Sarwar, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, China
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