ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Public Health
Sec. Infectious Diseases: Epidemiology and Prevention
Volume 13 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2025.1601781
Application of the Moving Epidemic Method for Influenza Surveillance in Kunming
Provisionally accepted
- 1Kunming Center for Disease Control, Kunming, China
- 2Kunming Medical University, Kunming, Yunnan Province, China
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Objective: The Moving Epidemic Method (MEM) has been widely used to assess seasonal influenza epidemics in temperate and subtropical regions. This was the first study to validate the use of MEM in a subtropical plateau environment. Methods: This study applied the Moving Epidemic Method (MEM) to establish influenza epidemic thresholds in Kunming, China, using virological surveillance data from 2011/2012 to 2023/2024. Results: The MEM model demonstrated high sensitivity (93%) and specificity (67%), with no detection lag for the 2023/2024 season. Epidemic thresholds (8%) which were notably lower than those in other subtropical regions, potentially due to Kunming's plateau monsoon climate. Conclusion: This study underscored MEM's adaptability in subtropical plateau settings and provided actionable thresholds for early outbreak response.
Keywords: moving epidemic method, MEM, influenza surveillance, Epidemic thresholds, Epidemic intensity
Received: 28 Mar 2025; Accepted: 06 Jun 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Gao, Zhou, Luo, Chen, Wang, Zha and Song. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence: Xiaoxiao Song, Kunming Medical University, Kunming, 650500, Yunnan Province, China
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