Complex Impacts between Economic Policy and Oil Listed Company: A Dynamics-Based Approach

Yanzhi Duan¹Xingsheng Jing¹Haitang Xu¹Zhong Wang²Xin Zhang¹Yi Wang^2*

• ¹PetroChina Southwest Oil and Gasfield Company, Chengdu, Sichuan Province, China
• ²Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu, China

The causal impacts between economic policy and oil listed companies are previously discussed, reporting either positive or negative impacts. However, various channels bridge the impacts flowing between them, resulting in multiple causal impacts rather than only a single casual impact. This work employs a dynamics-based causality method namely pattern causality, aims to reveal multiple causal interactions between economic policy and oil listed companies in China. Using the economics policy uncertainty index and the stock prices of nine popular oil listed companies in China from 2006 to 2025, several interesting findings are discovered. 1) There exist three kinds of causalities between economic policy and oil listed companies, including positive, negative and dark causality. Dark causality suggests a more complex interactions, which may drive two variables to evolve with fluctuations; 2) Rather than only one kind of causality, three heterogeneous causalities exist simultaneously with different magnitudes; 3) The causal impacts between economic policy and oil listed companies are asymmetric; 4) By comparing the causal magnitudes, dark causality plays a relatively dominate role between economic policy and oil listed companies. These new findings suggest complex interactions between economic policy and oil listed companies, requiring to reassess the underlying risks for market participants. Our approaches also provide alternative perspective to understand complexity in social systems.