Research on Disinformation Strategies for Public Emergencies: Dual Considerations of Timeliness and Accuracy

Yuxi ZhuYaohui Pan^*

• School of Economics and Management, China Jiliang University, Hangzhou, Jiangsu Province, China

At present, social media has become a breeding ground for online rumors. Its massive scale of users, as well as immediacy, openness, and other characteristics, make the breadth and speed of rumor dissemination much higher than the real social network, which significantly impacts people's lives and social stability. Studying the evolutionary mechanism of the competitive dissemination of information in public emergencies can help the government and the media monitor public opinion and guide public opinion effectively. We consider the competition mechanism between rumor and anti-rumor in competing for individual attention and trust, the influence of herd mentality, timeliness, and accuracy of anti-rumor, and construct a two-stage competitive communication model in which rumor and anti-rumor coexist. Python simulates the competitive evolution of rumor and anti-rumor, and the government's response strategies are discussed. The government's anti-rumor policy under different government credibility strengths and different sensitivities of public opinion topics is also further explored. The study shows that improving the timeliness and precision of anti-rumor release can effectively curb the scale of rumor dissemination, and the timeliness of anti-rumor has a more significant impact on the effect of anti-rumor, suggesting that responding to social concerns in a timely manner and continuously improving the precision of information release according to the development of the situation is the only way to achieve effective anti-rumor; When the government's credibility is extremely low, official statements may trigger the "Tacitus Trap" due to the lack of public trust, leading to the failure of anti-rumor, and it is necessary to reconstruct the foundation of governance through long-term trust ecological construction; in highly sensitive public opinion events, the surge of public participation may easily lead to the "double helix" effect of the simultaneous proliferation of rumors and anti-rumor, which requires the government to adopt more frequent, multi-channel and collaborative measures.