ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Sports Act. Living
Sec. Sports Coaching: Performance and Development
Volume 7 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fspor.2025.1573823
This article is part of the Research TopicFootball training and competitionView all 12 articles
The Influence of Substitution Decisions Made by National Team Coaches on Final Match Outcomes at UEFA EURO 2024
Provisionally accepted
- 1University of West Bohemia, Pilsen, Plzeň, Czechia
- 2Department of Sport Science, 4SportLab, Warsaw, Poland
- 3University of Applied Sciences in Nysa, Nysa, Poland
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Coaches leading national football teams during championship tournaments make decisions about tactical substitutions of players in critical match phases. This may be an attempt to change or defend a favorable score. The research focused on the time of decision-making of forced and planned substitutions, considering its characteristics: neutral, offensive, and defensive. The point of analysis of the substitutions was the match outcomes at the time of the substitutions and the final result and impact of the substitution concerning the result. Methods: 51 matches played during the UEFA EURO 2024 football tournament were analyzed during which 466 player substitutions were made. For the statistical analysis of the degree and strength of the relationship between the variables, the Chi-Square Test, Cramer's V coefficient, and Machine Learning were used accordingly. Results: 72% of coaches' decisions to player substitutions resulted from the decision to change the team's tactics by changing the team's setup or the players' positions. The most common negative (69%) or positive (61%) impact occurred from the substitution of a player after the 20th minute. Discussion: The decision trees used in the analysis determined the most advantageous time periods for coaches to make decisions about substitutions. The highest substitution effectiveness rate is obtained when the substitution is made between 60 and 85 minute and the lowest is made between 45 and 60.
Keywords: Football Competition, Player Substitutions, Coaching Decision, machine learning, Game strategy
Received: 10 Feb 2025; Accepted: 20 Jun 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Gabrys, Chruscinski, Garnys, Svatora and Suva. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence:
Radoslaw Chruscinski, Department of Sport Science, 4SportLab, Warsaw, Poland
Karel Svatora, University of West Bohemia, Pilsen, 306 14, Plzeň, Czechia
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