The effect of doping, anti-doping measures, and sociological factors on the annual distribution of all-time top performances in short, middle, and long-distance running

Dora Dragcevic^1*Jelena Jaksic²Lukas Libric²Ozana Jaksic²Delfa Radic-Kristo^1,2,3Vlatka Pandzic^2,4Ozren Jaksic^2,5

• ¹Zavod za hematologiju, Klinicka bolnica Merkur, Zagreb, Croatia
• ²Sveuciliste u Zagrebu Medicinski fakultet, Zagreb, Croatia
• ³Sveuciliste Josipa Jurja Strossmayera u Osijeku Medicinski Fakultet Osijek, Osijek, Croatia
• ⁴Zavod za endokrinologiju, dijabetes, bolesti metabolizma i kliničku farmakologiju, Klinicka bolnica Dubrava, Zagreb, Croatia
• ⁵Zavod za hematologiju, Klinicka bolnica Dubrava, Zagreb, Croatia

Scientific advancements, doping, anti-doping strategies, and sociological factors all influence athletic performance. This retrospective study aimed to analyze how different variables affect the annual distribution of all-time top performances from 1968 to 2023 in men’s and women’s running disciplines with different physiological demands (100m–anaerobic, 5000m–aerobic, 800m–mixed aerobic-anaerobic). A public database, www.alltime-athletics.com, with results linked to doping already excluded, was used. The annual distribution of top performances was modeled using negative binomial distribution to assess the influence of continuous and categorical variables, including doping availability (e.g., tetrahydrogestrinone, erythropoietin), anti-doping measures (e.g., Athlete Biological Passport modules, out-of-competition testing), and sociological factors (e.g., Olympic years). Steroid related variables showed significant effects on the annual distribution of top performances across almost all tested men’s and women’s disciplines, with a significant negative influence of testosterone limitations in women’s 800m, as well as a negative influence of the steroid module of the Athlete Biological Passport in women’s 100m and men’s 800m and 5000m disciplines. Blood-doping related variables, including the positive influence of erythropoietin availability and the negative influence of the hematological module of the Athlete Biological Passport, demonstrated significant effects on performance in both 800m disciplines. Olympic years emerged as a positive factor in the majority of tested disciplines, while the COVID-19 pandemic showed no significant influence. Despite strict anti-doping measures, our findings reveal a complex interaction of doping practices, regulatory frameworks, and social factors that continue to influence trends in elite athletic performance.