Designing a conceptual model for the climate change impact on agricultural performance and food security: a study based on farmers and policymakers’ experiences in the agricultural sector

Introduction: The present study aimed to design a conceptual model of the climate change impact on agricultural performance and food security, which focused on experiences of farmers and policymakers in the agricultural sector.

Methods: In terms of its purpose, it was an applied research and in terms of nature, it was a qualitative study using grounded theory technique. The statistical population consisted of all farmers in Kermanshah city, experts, university professors and policymakers. In this study, totally 18 individuals were investigated using a non-probability purposive sampling and snowball method until reaching theoretical saturation. An in-depth semi-structured individual interview was carried out for data collection and then MAXQDA 2018 software was applied for data coding. Thereafter, 18 major categories were identified in six grounded theory groups.

Results: According to the results, agricultural instability and food security threats were influenced by the causal factors as a result of climate change. These causal factors included severe climate change, reduced production capacity, economic instability of farmers, and dependence on natural resources. This issue is formed in a context of background conditions including climatic characteristics, agricultural infrastructure, prevailing policies, economic and social conditions, which is influenced with economic, social, technological, environmental, policy-making, and international constraints as the intervening factors. To address this challenge, strategies such as water resource management, crop optimization, support policies, education and extension, and social measures should be adopted to alleviate economic collapse, food security crisis, natural resource degradation, migration, social instability, and governance inefficiency.

Discussion: In conclusion, to reduce agricultural instability and food security threats, increasing agricultural system resilience to the climate change is suggested through developing new technologies, strengthening support policies, optimizing resource management, and educating farmers.

1 Introduction

Climate change is a matter of worldwide concern, with alarming repercussions for human societies, economies, and ecosystems (Adnan et al., 2023). The Earth’s climate has been evolving for nearly a million years, but the current rate of change is much faster than can be attributed solely to natural processes. The prevailing consensus among scientists is that human activities are the primary cause behind the escalating speed of climate change (Brempong et al., 2023). Climate change, as one of the most important challenges of the current century, has widespread consequences on various aspects of human life, particularly in the field of agriculture and food security. Increasing global temperature and extreme climatic events such as floods and droughts, changing precipitation patterns, and changes in the soil moisture are among the key factors affecting agricultural production. These changes not only reduce agricultural yields, but also disrupt the food supply chain (Amani et al., 2024).

Multiple studies have demonstrated that the world is currently facing the impacts of climate change. Rising temperatures have led to more frequent and severe heatwaves, significantly affecting human health and productivity (Chen et al., 2023). Climate change has also caused intense storms and droughts, impacting water supplies and food security in various nations (Dawood et al., 2024). Climate change may naturally occur over periods of several thousand years; nonetheless, sudden and severe climate fluctuations have become a fundamental challenge of various societies and important environmental issue in recent years. This phenomenon has brought about wide-ranging consequences such as increasing global temperatures, melting polar ice caps, rising sea levels, and climate thresholds’ changes (Asadi and Rostami, 2025). In less developed regions, farmers are more vulnerable to climate change due to their economic and social capital shortages, including modern irrigation systems and drought-resistant crops’ cultivation. Climate change is widely recognized as a significant risk for the agricultural sector, since it can have substantial negative impacts on agricultural production, food industries, and added value in this area (Hajirahimi et al., 2025).

Climate change has a significant impact on agriculture, which plays a crucial role in sustainable development and food production. The various effects of climate change on agriculture include changes in temperature, precipitation, and extreme weather events (Bradshaw et al., 2024). These harmful effects are particularly concerning for developing nations, where agriculture is essential for both economic growth and food security (Dmuchowski et al., 2024). Hence, it is essential to identify the climate change consequences and develop appropriate policies to deal with this phenomenon. One of the vital consequences of these changes is their effect on food security, as the food security is directly connected to climate conditions. Any change in climatic factors can affect all aspects of the food chain (Yuan et al., 2024). Food supply is influenced by the climate change, both directly and indirectly, as this change would significantly affect the yield and production of agricultural products (Fahad et al., 2024). From a theoretical perspective, climate change can affect agricultural production in various ways. Factors such as rainfall patterns, air temperature, extreme weather conditions, soil moisture, and carbon dioxide accumulation are among the key variables that play chief roles in agricultural development. This relationship is especially evident in African countries where national economies are heavily dependent on the agricultural sector (Asadi and Rostami, 2025).

Widespread changes in rainfall patterns, such as droughts or floods, can damage agricultural crops and reduce production in this sector. Temperature drops, lack of rainfall, and other adverse climate changes also have negative effects on agricultural production. Conversely, improving these conditions can lead to increased agricultural production and development (Blanz, 2023). Therefore, climate change may have positive or negative effects on agriculture and consequently food security, depending on its nature and severity. Since, most of the food consumed is provided by the agricultural sector, any change in production level of this sector will directly affect food security (Gasparini et al., 2024). Agricultural performance is strongly influenced by weather conditions, and climate change can directly and indirectly alter this performance. Decreased soil moisture, increased plant pests and diseases, and reduced quality and quantity of water resources are among these negative and undesirable changes. Although, in some regions, temperature changes and increased carbon dioxide levels may improve the growth of some crops in the short term, climate instability will be a serious threat to sustainable agriculture in the long term (Hajirahimi et al., 2025). Food security depends on four main dimensions, including access, attainment, utilization, and sustainability; while, the climate change can affect any of these dimensions. Reduced agricultural production increases food prices and reduces the purchasing power of vulnerable groups. The climate change could affect nutritional value of the food products and, as a result, change the diet quality of different societies (Ortiz-Bobea et al., 2021). The experiences of farmers and agricultural policymakers can be used as a valuable source for developing a conceptual model. Farmers are directly involved in climate change and can provide valuable information about the impact of these changes on their production, coping methods, and adaptation. Besides, policymakers can provide insights into the implementation challenges and existing policies addressing climate change in the agricultural sector (Lee et al., 2023). In many countries, several policies have been employed to mitigate negative impacts of climate change on agriculture and food security (Gbadeyan et al., 2024). These policies could be stated as: promoting climate-smart agriculture, developing drought and heat resistant seeds, optimizing water resource management, and implementing strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the agricultural sector. Adopting policies that are compatible with climate conditions in each region can reduce the damage caused by climate change in the agricultural sector (Amani et al., 2024).

Several studies have already examined the impact of climate change on agriculture and food security. The impact of climate change on agriculture poses significant challenges to global food security and sustainable development goals (Lodhi et al., 2024). Decreased agricultural productivity due to climate variability is a leading factor contributing to food insecurity and malnutrition. According to Rehman et al. (2024), South Asian regions are particularly vulnerable to soil and land degradation, which can be attributed to their limited land area, accounting for only about 3.4% of the world’s total, and high population density, representing roughly 25% of the estimated 1.75 billion people worldwide. Hence, the adverse impacts within this region could impede agricultural productivity (Nawaz et al., 2024). Diminished agricultural productivity could consequently lead to poverty, worsening preexisting social and economic disparities (Sheikh et al., 2024). Climate change might bring about changes in land suitability for farming, with high-altitude regions experiencing increased crop production, while low-altitude areas may witness a decrease in crop yields (Sun et al., 2024). In conjunction with the rising concern of food insecurity, the uneven growth patterns of these vital crops can not only reduce domestic income and employment but also hinder the performance of associated production industries (Timsina, 2024). Furthermore, climate change can result in conflict, migration, and social instability, intensifying its impact on food security (Yanagi, 2024). The changing climate has substantial implications for achieving the sustainable development goals, such as reducing poverty, fostering sustainable agriculture, and addressing climate change (Yu et al., 2024). Sustainable agriculture is crucial for ensuring food security and alleviating poverty (Zheng et al., 2024), yet the negative effects of climate change, especially on biodiversity and natural resources, pose significant obstacles to reaching these objectives.

Sharifi and Rezaei (2020) examined the climate change effect on wheat production in Iran. Also, Mohammadi and Ahmadi (2021) used the SSM-iCrop2 model to predict the impact of climate change on strategic crops. Similarly, Akbari and Nouri (2018) analyzed the adaptation strategies of date growers in the face of climate change and their impact on production in southeastern of Iran. Given the increasing trend of climate change, it is essential to adopt long-term strategies to increase the agricultural sector resilience and to ensure food security. Investing in the research related to new agricultural technologies, developing early warning systems for managing climate crises, and encouraging changes in cropping patterns and optimal use of resources are among some applicable solutions for diminishing negative effects of climate change. Designing an appropriate conceptual model can enforce scientific and policy decisions and pave the way of achieving sustainable agricultural development. However, a remarkable gap in the related research is clearly visible. In fact, most of the existing studies have focused on quantitative analyses and model-based predictions or have only examined farmers’ experiences, without considering the perspectives of policymakers and decision-makers in the agricultural sector. In other words, no research has been yet conducted with a comprehensive conceptual model based on a data-driven method, which simultaneously assess the experiences of farmers and policymakers. Therefore, this research aims to design and afford a conceptual model from the impact of climate change on agricultural performance and food security through a data-driven method, which could be assumed as an attempt to fulfill this scientific gap.

2 Research methodology

The present research used a qualitative approach and its strategy was based on grounded theory. At the heart of this method, a systematic approach was used to achieve a paradigmatic model. The statistical population of this research included all farmers in Kermanshah city, experts, university professors, and policymakers. In order to do sampling, non-probability purposive and snowball sampling method was used. The sample population consisted of experts who were more knowledgeable about the research topic and could give richer answers to the research questions. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 18 experts; while, theoretical saturation was achieved after the 15th interview. The interview protocol also included seven general questions that were designed based on the results of observing documents, research history, and consulting with experts in the field. The validity of questions was confirmed based on the opinions of experts. It should be noted that before starting the interview, the research objectives and questions were sent to the interviewees via email to have initial preparation, a brief explanation was given at the beginning of the meeting, and then the interview questions were asked. In order to have better and cordial communication with interviewees during the interview process and to gain participants’ satisfaction, the interviews were recorded using tape recorder, and the notes were also written down from the key points of each interview. The average time of each interview was 35 min.

Data analysis was conducted using a systematic approach that included three stages of open, axial, and selective coding according the Strauss and Corbin model. For this purpose, at the open coding stage, initial codes or concepts were identified after reviewing and organizing the interview texts, and similar codes were put in specific categories. Then, for each category, a title was selected that represented all codes of that category. At the axial coding stage, the relationships between the axial phenomenon and other categories and concepts were identified and presented. Finally, these categories were represented as a paradigm and placed at selected coding through considering the relationship among their categories in the grounded theory paradigm model and its six classes. Because the research nature required a detailed analysis of participants’ perspectives on the study subject, the interviews’ coding and analysis process were carried out using MAXQDA 2018 software. Eventually, the findings’ validity of the qualitative analyses was ensured using the criteria provided by Creswell and Miller (2000). This criteria, consisted of the review by three interviewees and peer review of two professors as well as two doctoral students who were experts in document and interview coding.

It is important to mention that this article has been approved by the Ethics Committee of Razi University, in the Kermanshah Province, in the Ethics Audit Department. Informed consent was secured from all participants, with detailed explanations provided regarding the study’s purpose, procedures, risks, benefits, and the voluntary nature of their participation. Participant information was kept confidential, utilizing anonymous transcripts and secure data storage protocols.

3 Research findings

As was stated earlier, semi-structured interviews were conducted with 18 farmers, experts, university professors, and policymakers in Kermanshah city. Descriptive analysis of the study population showed that in terms of education, out of a total of 18 respondents, seven (38.88%) had a PhD, two (11.12%) were PhD students, four (22.22%) had a Master’s degree, and five (27.78%) had a Bachelor’s degree. This distribution indicates respondents’ educational diversity and the importance of having different educational degrees in the research. Accordingly, 18 interviews were analyzed. At the open coding stage, after reviewing the data and merging similar concepts, 170 initial concepts were reduced to 66 subcategories. At the second stage of axial coding, secondary codes were classified based on their relationship with similar topics and were placed into 18 main categories. At the last stage of the open coding, main categories that were previously obtained were put into more generalized categories or the categories with similarities, conceptual connections, and common features between open codes and concepts. At the axial coding stage, the components obtained from the open coding stage were linked together and transferred into 18 subcategories in a paradigmatic pattern. The findings of the open, axial, and selective coding stages are presented in Table 1. Due to the length of the open coding stages, only the secondary open codes are mentioned for each category.

Table 1

Table 1. Open coding, axial coding, and selective coding stages.

Table 2 contains the concepts identified in the transcribed interview text categorized into sub and main categories.

Table 2

Table 2. Participant demographic characteristics.

3.1 Causal factors

In this study, the causal factors of climate change impact on agricultural performance and food security were identified. They included severe climate change, reduced production capacity, and economic instability of farmers. Climate change, with the occurrence of extreme climate phenomena (such as flash floods and prolonged droughts) `, has caused natural resources’ destruction and agricultural sustainability alleviation. As a result, the decline in the quality of agricultural land and crop productivity has resulted in reduced production capacity and has threatened food security. On the other hand, economic pressure on farmers, inappropriate climate policymaking, and restrictions in using new technologies have reduced the ability of farmers to adapt to new conditions and exposed them to greater vulnerability. In sum, these factors have challenged food security and sustainable agricultural development, and have necessitated the development of supportive and climate-adapted policies.

3.1.1 Quote from contributors

Contributor 1: I believe that flash floods and extended droughts pose a significant threat to our food security.

Contributor 5: The more we destroy our natural resources, both individually and through government actions, the farther we drift from achieving development and sustainable agriculture.

Contributor 8: Our agricultural lands have deteriorated in quality due to water shortages, insufficient basic knowledge and technology, and the absence of proper industrial wastewater treatment.

Contributor 9: Because of the limited use of technology and poor communication with agricultural promoters, agricultural production efficiency has decreased.

Contributor 10: Farmers are facing economic challenges and struggling.

Contributor 12: The government’s climate policies have proven ineffective, leading us to confront a climate crisis and severe air pollution.

Contributor 17: We are facing issues because of a lack of fundamental training in utilizing modern technology.

Contributor 18: Floods and acid rain result in the extinction of natural resources, ultimately leading to a decline in food availability.

3.2 Contextual factors

In this study, contextual factors that provide conditions for the emergence and intensification of climate change impacts on agriculture and food security were identified. They consisted of climatic and geographical characteristics, agricultural infrastructure, policies and governance, access to inputs, economic status, and social structures. The instability of precipitation patterns, temperature changes, and increased evaporation and drought have decreased water resources and increased soil erosion, which both threaten agricultural productivity. In addition, the inefficiency of irrigation systems, soil degradation, and reduced groundwater reserves have diminished the ability to reach sustainably. Weaknesses in support policies, incoherence among government institutions, and a legal vacuum in the protection of natural resources, have challenged climate crises’ management. Limitations in the supplying agricultural inputs and low technology level have undermined the possibility of using modern methods to deal with climate change. Economically, volatile crop prices, high production costs, and weak distribution and sales’ networks have lessened farmers’ income security. Generally, weak agricultural organizations, low trust in government policies, and a lack of collective action, have hindered collaborative approaches in addressing climate challenges. Altogether, these factors have created complex circumstances of the barriers that make it difficult to manage climate change and improve food security.

3.2.1 Quote from contributors

Contributor 2: The unpredictable rainfall patterns are depleting our water sources, posing a threat to our agricultural sector.

Contributor 6: The inefficiency of our country’s irrigation systems is hindering our ability to achieve sustainable development, ensure food security, and promote sustainable agriculture.

Contributor 7: The government’s failure to protect the environment and natural resources is leading to irreversible climate crises.

Contributor 11: In my view, fluctuating agricultural prices have diminished farmers’ financial stability.

3.3 Confounding factors

In this research, confounding factors were identified as variables affecting the intensity and manner of climate change impacts on agriculture and food security. Economic constraints such as economic instability, market unpredictability, and lack of investment in the agricultural sector, have reduced farmers’ financial capacity to benefit from climate change adaptation’ strategies. Besides, social constraints such lack of skilled labor, cultural influences on change acceptance, as well as social and cultural barriers have challenged farmers’ adaptation processes. Technological constraints including lack of access to modern agricultural technologies have hindered the development of innovative methods, which are compulsory to increase productivity and reduce negative impacts of climate change. Environmental constraints like challenges in water resource management and reduction of biodiversity in agricultural ecosystems have made environmental conditions more difficult for achieving sustainable agriculture. Policy challenges, including weak governmental support policies and unstable decision-making in the agricultural sector, have also contributed to confusion and lack of coordination in coping strategies’ accomplishment. Finally, international constraints such as global impacts and dependence on international trade have made domestic agriculture more vulnerable to global economic and political crises. These intervening factors have limited the ability of farmers and policymakers to cope with climate change consequences and have contributed to fundamental challenges in managing food security and sustainable development in the agricultural sector.

3.3.1 Quote from contributors

Contributor 3: Economic challenges, like instability and a lack of investment in the agricultural sector, have diminished farmers’ financial ability to take advantage of climate change adaptation strategies.

Contributor 4: Social barriers, including the shortage of skilled and specialized labor, along with social and cultural obstacles, have hindered farmers’ adaptation processes.

Contributor 13: Technological constraints and barriers, including lack of access to modern agricultural technologies, hinder the development of innovative methods.

Contributor 15: I believe that environmental challenges, such as managing water resources, loss of biodiversity, and endangerment of species in agricultural ecosystems, have made it more difficult to achieve sustainable agriculture.

Contributor 16: The government’s misguided policies have hindered us from implementing and executing a sound strategy.

Contributor 17: Many argue that our reliance on foreign countries for agriculture and the excessive amount of imports have negatively impacted our agricultural sector.

3.4 Main phenomenon

In this experiment, the pivotal phenomenon was recognized as the central concept in which other causal factors (intervening, contextual, strategies, and consequences) are formed around it and was called: “agricultural instability and threat to food security as a result of climate change”. This phenomenon reflects the widespread impacts of climate change, including increased extreme weather events, reduced agricultural productivity, degradation of natural resources, and economic fluctuations in agriculture and food security. Temperature changes, decreasing water resources, unstable agricultural product markets, and ineffective support policies have caused farmers to face with increasing challenges to secure their livelihoods and continue their activities. Meanwhile, farmers’ inability to properly use new technologies and inappropriate infrastructure have reduced their resilience to these changes, leading to production instability and increased vulnerability of the food supply chain. These conditions not only threaten farmers’ livelihoods, but also have widespread consequences on food security of the society.

3.5 Strategies

In order to deal with climate change consequences on agriculture and food security, a set of key strategies were identified that can help reduce negative effects of climate change and intensify the agricultural sector resilience. In terms of water resource management, development of new irrigation methods, restoration of groundwater resources and water reuse can facilitate water stress reduction. Furthermore, in terms of crops’ production optimization, using drought and heat-resistant seeds, changing crop patterns, and soil improvement are assumed as effective measures for increasing agricultural productivity. Considering economic and market strategies, strengthening local markets, providing financial facilities to farmers, and controlling product price’ fluctuations can play effective role in farmers’ economic sustainable improvement.

At the policy and governance level, it is essential to formulate climate-friendly policies, improve coordination among different institutions, and increase transparency in monitoring agricultural policies. Implementing educational and extension strategies through raising farmers’ awareness, developing applied research, and strengthening the role of media can accelerate farmers’ acceptance upon the occurrence of changes and easier adaptation to new conditions. Finally, social and participatory strategies, such as strengthening agricultural cooperatives, promoting sustainable livelihood models, and increasing farmers’ participation in policy-making procedure, are of particular importance in increasing resilience and social cohesion upon facing climate change.

3.5.1 Quote from contributors

Contributor 1: Using drought-resistant seeds and improving soil quality can enhance agricultural productivity.

Contributor 5: I believe that implementing environmentally and climate-friendly policies can be effective.

Contributor 8: I believe that enhancing agricultural cooperatives, promoting sustainable livelihood models, and involving farmers more in policy-making are crucial for improving resilience and social cohesion in response to climate change.

Contributor 9: Improving local markets, offering financial support to farmers, and managing fluctuations in product prices can effectively contribute to the sustainable economic development of farmers.

Contributor 12: I believe that educating farmers is a crucial step towards achieving sustainable agriculture and ensuring food security.

Contributor 14: Restoring groundwater resources can help prevent water stress.

Contributor 17: I believe that implementing water resource management is a beneficial strategy.

3.6 Implications

Economic collapse caused by climate change is distinguished as one of the main challenges of agriculture. Lack of agricultural production profitability as a result of reduced productivity and increased production costs, has increased debt and financial dependence of farmers, and has led to investment withdrawal and undermining development potential of the agricultural sector and ultimately has jeopardized its sustainability. The food security crisis has been also intensified due to decreasing access to healthy and sufficient food, leading to a decline in the purchasing power of farming households, increase in food inequality, and malnutrition in the society. Moreover, the destruction of natural resources through a decrease in the quality and quantity of water resources, expedites desertification and soil erosion rate, increases biological threats to crops, limits the capacity of agricultural production and threatens food security even more than before. In addition to these issues, farmers’ migration to the cities and social instability are also serious consequences of the climate change on rural communities. Forced migration of villagers to the outskirts of cities, increased social conflicts over natural resources, rural lifestyles decline, and agricultural culture deterioration have led to fundamental changes in the social structure of rural areas and have generated new crises. Eventually, ineffective governance with a lack of strategic plans for managing climate change, the country’s increased dependence on food imports, and increased pressure on decision-makers for climate reforms, weaken the competency of governments to deal with this crisis and accordingly complicate future challenges.

3.6.1 Quote from contributors

Contributor 2: The economic downfall is the foremost challenge and repercussion of climate change.

Contributor 4: The lack of profitability in our agriculture industry is causing a decline in sustainability.

Contributor 7: In my view, the food security crisis has worsened due to limited access to safe and adequate food, which has resulted in reduced purchasing power for farming households. This has led to heightened food inequality and malnutrition within society.

Contributor 10: I believe that the migration of farmers to cities and social instability are significant consequences of climate change affecting rural communities.

Contributor 13: In my view, ineffective governance, coupled with a lack of strategic plans to address climate change, heightens the country’s reliance on food imports and places added pressure on policymakers to enact reforms to combat climate change. This weakens governments’ capacity to confront the crisis and, consequently, complicates handling future challenges.

4 Discussion and conclusion

The climate change, as a fundamental challenge of the current century, has had profound effects on agriculture and food security. The findings of this study exhibited that increasing temperature, changing precipitation patterns, and the occurrence of numbers of extreme phenomena such as drought and flood, has led to a decrease in agricultural production and economic instability in this sector. These results are consistent with a great deal of previous studies. For example, the study carried out by Nehbandani et al. (2021) revealed that climate change scenarios could reduce the production of basic crops such as wheat and barley by 5% and 8%, respectively. Eslami (2020) also emphasized that temperature fluctuations have reduced production efficiency in arid and semi-arid regions of the country and have increased the need for compensatory policies.

On the other hand, underlying factors including inefficient agricultural infrastructure and weak support policies exacerbate negative effects of climate change. Studies have displayed that insufficient investment in the agricultural sector, lack of appropriate equipment for storing and utilizing water, and lack of government support have made farmers more vulnerable to climate crises. The research accomplished by Asadi & Rostami. (2025) underlined that the weakness in macro-policies and incoordination among different sectors of natural resource management, have exacerbated environmental and economic crises in the rural areas of Iran.

Intervening factors such as economic and social constraints have also worsened the agricultural crisis. The reduction of farmers’ financial capacity and forced migration of villagers to cities are among the consequences of these constraints. The findings of this study indicated that lack of investment in agricultural infrastructure and market fluctuations have resulted in a decrease in farmers’ motivation to continue production activities. These results are consistent with the studies implemented by Amani et al. (2024), which reported that increasing production costs and lack of government financial supports have gradually caused farmers to withdraw from the production cycle.

To address these challenges, it is indispensable to adopt effective strategies. The findings of the present study highlighted the fact that using modern irrigation systems, optimizing the cropping pattern, and providing economic support to farmers play significant role in reducing negative effects of climate change. The study executed by Hajirahimi et al. (2025) showed that using drip irrigation systems and development of water resources’ management technologies have significantly increased production efficiency and facilitated the reduction of drought effects. In terms of policy-making and governance, our results uncovered that improving inter-sectoral coordination, increasing transparency, and monitoring agricultural policies can lead to more sustainable development of this sector. In line with this finding, the study of Yuan et al. (2024) disclosed that the countries with coherent and supportive policies for natural resource management and climate change are more resilient to environmental crises and are able to maintain their food security.

Social and participatory strategies also play a chief role in increasing farmers’ resilience to climate change. According to the current study, strengthening agricultural cooperatives, promoting sustainable livelihood patterns, and increasing farmers’ participation in policymaking could reinforce agricultural sustainability. The study of Lee et al. (2023) also reported that participatory programs in water resource management and increasing farmers’ awareness have positive influence on their adaptability to climate change.

The consequences of not managing properly the climate change in agriculture are very widespread. The findings accentuated that if appropriate measures are not taken, agricultural economic collapse, food security crisis, destruction of natural resources, and increased migration from rural areas to the cities would certainly occur. These findings are consistent with the study of Asadi & Rostami. (2025), when they pinpoint that reducing in water resources’ quality and quantity is regarded as a central intervening factor of rural migration.

Another important consequence of the climate crisis is biodiversity reduction and biological threats’ increase in crops. Sharifi and Rezaei (2020) discovered that increasing temperatures and decreasing rainfall have led to a reduction in vegetation cover, reduced soil yield, and increased risk of agricultural pests and diseases. In present study, this issue was also identified as one of the key consequences of the climate change.

Overall, our findings confirmed that climate change has pervasive impacts on agriculture and food security, and to deal with this crisis, it is compulsory to formulate comprehensive policies to be able to improve agricultural infrastructure, sustainably manage natural resources, and provide financial support for farmers. Future research are expected to examine the effects of mitigation policies of climate change on agriculture and food security in more detail. Correspondingly, using new technologies in agriculture, including smart agricultural systems and drought-resistant crops, can be regarded as an effective solution to deal with the challenges caused by the climate change. This research detected that climate change, whether in the form of normal change, variability, or a combination of both, has severe negative effects on food security and economic wellbeing of farmers in Iran. The most significant negative consequences of these changes could be listed as farmers’ income deterioration, raising the price of basic agricultural products such as wheat, rice, and potatoes, and decreasing in economic well-being surplus. It was identified that the climate change not only affects agricultural production, but also causes instability in food supply and increases the consumer costs. Therefore, ignoring this issue can lead to serious crises in the agricultural sector and food security of the country in the long term. To diminish negative effects of climate change on food security, the policymakers and program planners in the agricultural sector, are recommended to put following measures on the agenda: changing the cultivation pattern towards drought-resistant crops, using modern irrigation methods, implementing desertification programs, and developing sustainable agricultural technologies. Also, increasing farmers’ awareness of the soil and water resource management methods and supporting applied research in the field of climate change could be suggested to mitigate its adverse impacts. Adopting these sustainable approaches not only improves food security, but also increases the country’s agricultural resilience to climate change.

Despite offering valuable results, this research faced some restrictions during its implementation. One of the fundamental challenges researchers confronted was the lack of access to recent and accurate data on agricultural production and climate change, which definitely affected the accuracy of data analyses. Also, the research focus was solely on three basic crops (wheat, rice, and potatoes) and other important crops were neglected. Besides, the effects of government support policies such as subsidies, agricultural insurance, and modern irrigation methods were not independently examined; while, these factors can have a significant impact on food security and farmers’ income and should be separately assessed.

It is suggested that in future studies the research scope is extended to other agricultural products and sectors, including livestock and water resources. Investigating the role of supportive policies and government adaptation programs in reducing climate change effects, can also afford solutions that are more practical. Applying advanced simulation and machine learning models can increase the accuracy of predictions as well. Finally yet importantly, conducting comparative studies with the countries under similar climatic conditions such as Turkey and the Persian Gulf countries is suggested to identify successful and applicable solutions for Iran and even other neighborhood countries.

Data availability statement

The raw data supporting the conclusions of this article will be made available by the authors, without undue reservation.

Ethics statement

The studies involving humans were approved by Razi University Kermanshah, Iran. The studies were conducted in accordance with the local legislation and institutional requirements. Written informed consent for participation in this study was provided by the participants’ legal guardians/next of kin. Written informed consent was obtained from the individual(s) for the publication of any potentially identifiable images or data included in this article.

Author contributions

MS: Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal Analysis, Methodology, Resources, Software, Validation, Writing – original draft. PS: Data curation, Formal Analysis, Methodology, Resources, Software, Writing – review and editing.

Funding

The author(s) declare that no financial support was received for the research and/or publication of this article.

Conflict of interest

The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest.

Generative AI statement

The author(s) declare that no Generative AI was used in the creation of this manuscript.

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Supplementary material

The Supplementary Material for this article can be found online at: https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/frfst.2025.1667938/full#supplementary-material

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