The Impact of Sample Retention and Further Analysis on Doping Behavior and Detection: Evidence from Agent-Based Simulations

Daniel Westmattelmann^1*Marius Sprenger¹Julian Lanfer¹Benedikt Stoffers¹Andrea Petroczi²

• ¹University of Münster, Münster, Germany
• ²Department of Humanities, Kingston School of Art, Kingston University, Kingston upon Thames, England, United Kingdom

Detection-based deterrence is central to anti-doping efforts in sports, yet a significant gap persists between low detection rates and higher estimated doping prevalence. Sample Retention and Further Analysis (SFA) allows anti-doping organizations to store collected samples for up to ten years for future re-analysis, potentially enhancing both detection and deterrence. This study aims to quantify the effect of SFA application on two outcome variables: Doping behavior of athletes as well as the detection rates of doping. Utilizing an agent-based modelling approach, we simulated interactions among athletes, anti-doping organizations, anti-doping laboratories, and event organizers. The model incorporated factors that could influence athletes' decisions to dope, such as the perceived certainty and swiftness of sanctions, and allowed manipulation of SFA parameters (the number of stored samples and storage duration). Results from the simulations indicate that increasing both the number of stored and retested samples and the length of storage significantly decreases doping prevalence. A combined strategy of enhancing both measures proved most effective, leading to greater reductions in doping behavior and higher detection rates. Regression analysis revealed a non-linear relationship with diminishing returns at higher levels of implementation, emphasizing the need for strategic application. These findings suggest that SFA application not only improves detection capabilities but also serves as a deterrent by increasing the perceived risk of future detection. The study provides quantitative evidence supporting the effectiveness of SFA strategies in anti-doping work and highlights the importance of balancing detection certainty with the timeliness of sanctions to maximize deterrence. Implications for anti-doping practice include adopting more comprehensive SFA strategies targeted towards either increasing deterrence or enhancing long-term detection capabilities of testing. Future research should consider additional factors influencing doping behavior and empirically validate the model's predictions to advance anti-doping strategies.