ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Plant Sci.
Sec. Plant Bioinformatics
Volume 16 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fpls.2025.1617802
Assessment of Potential Habitat Suitability for Kiwifruit (Actinidia spp) in Shaanxi Province under Climate Change Scenarios
Provisionally accepted
- 1Northwest A&F University, Xianyang, China
- 2Agricultural University of Athens, Athens, Greece
- 3Shanxi Institute of Energey, Jinzhong, Shanxi Province, China
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Climate change and anthropogenic activities have significantly altered the distribution patterns of kiwifruit resources in Shaanxi Province. Clarifying the characteristics of future climate suitability zones can provide scientific support for optimizing industrial planning and mitigating meteorological disaster risks. This study applied the MaxEnt model with ENMeval package parameter optimizatio. Environmental factor contributions were quantified via jackknife tests, and spatial consistency between major producing counties and ecological suitability areas was analyzed using ArcGIS. The dynamic shifts and centroid migration patterns of kiwifruit habitats under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) climate scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, SSP585) during the 2050-2070 were simulated. Currently, highsuitability zones (13,100 km², 6.38% of the province) are concentrated in the northern Qinling Mountains, Weihe River terrace irrigation areas, and the Danjiang/Hanjiang River basins of southern Shaanxi, while moderate-suitability zones cover 32,600 km² (15.86%). Critical environmental drivers include the mean temperature of the coldest quarte, elevatio, annual temperature variation range, and soil moisture conten. Future projections reveal substantial reductions in high-suitability habitats (SSP126: 79.12% decrease to 2,700 km² by 2080; SSP245/370/585 reductions of 58.01%/68.33%/61.70%), intensified habitat fragmentation, and slight northwestward centroid shift. This study systematically evaluates climate change impacts on kiwifruit suitability zones, offering a theoretical basis for intensive adjustments in Shaanxi's cultivation zones, agricultural policy formulation, and biodiversity conservation strategies.
Keywords: Kiwifruit, Climate Change, habitat suitability, SSP, Maxent
Received: 25 Apr 2025; Accepted: 30 Jul 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Niu, Han, Niu, Roussos, Cheng, Xie, Jin and Zhang. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence:
Ning Jin, Shanxi Institute of Energey, Jinzhong, 030600, Shanxi Province, China
Dongyan Zhang, Northwest A&F University, Xianyang, China
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