Projecting Suitable Habitats and Prioritizing Conservation Areas for Dendrobium shixingense under Climate Change

Wei Lin¹Yingying Ren²枫顺 壹樊³Min Deng²Yibing Liu²Qingxia Zhang³Xiangxin Xu³Shiting Huang⁴Hua Zhang^5*Junsheng Qi^2,6*

• ¹Green Planting and Deep Processing of Genuine Medicinal Materials in Three Gorges Reservoir Area, Chongqing Three Gorges University, Wanzhou, China
• ²School of Environmental and Chemical Engineering, Chongqing Three Gorges University, chongqing, China
• ³Green Planting and Deep Processing of Genuine Medicinal Materials in Three Gorges Reservoir Area, Chongqing Three Gorges University, chongqing, China
• ⁴Green Planting and Deep Processing of Genuine Medicinal Materials in Three Gorges Reservoir Area, Chongqing Three Gorges Universityng, Chongqing Three Gorges University, chongqing, China
• ⁵Green Planting and Deep Processing of Genuine Medicinal Materials in Three Gorges Reservoir Area, Chongqing Three Gorges University, Chongqing Three Gorges University, chongqing, China
• ⁶Green Planting and Deep Processing of Genuine Medicinal Materials in Three Gorges Reservoir Area, Chongqing Three Gorges University, chongqin, China

Dendrobium shixingense Z. L. Chen，S. J. Zeng & J. Duan, a National Class II Protected wild plant species in China, is renowned for its rich polysaccharide content and remarkable medicinal value. Delineating priority conservation areas for this species is critically important for its sustainable conservation and management. In this study, the MaxEnt model was applied to predict its potential distribution patterns under multiple climate scenarios, while the Marxan and InVEST models were utilized to identify priority conservation zones. Results demonstrated that the primary distribution of D. shixingense is concentrated in southeastern China, particularly in Guangdong, Fujian, Guangxi, and Jiangxi provinces, covering a total suitable habitat area of 79.41 × 10 4 km 2 . Future projections suggested an expansion of suitable habitats, with key environmental drivers identified as precipitation of the coldest quarter (Bio19), mean diurnal temperature range (Bio2), altitude, Soil pH, and mean temperature of the driest quarter (Bio9). Priority conservation areas were predominantly located in Shixing County and Ruyuan Yao Autonomous County of Shaoguan City; Yangshan County and Lianzhou City of Qingyuan City; Xing'an County of Guilin City; and Lianping County of Heyuan City. These findings provide essential scientific insights for formulating effective conservation strategies and promoting the sustainable development of D. shixingense.