ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Plant Sci.
Sec. Functional Plant Ecology
Volume 16 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fpls.2025.1635397
This article is part of the Research TopicEnhancing Woody Plant Growth and Resilience Through Nature-Based SolutionsView all 8 articles
From rings to regions: modeling and mapping climate-driven timber production zones for Cyclocarya paliurus by integrating niche models and growth traits
Provisionally accepted
- 1Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing, China
- 2The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada
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Cyclocarya paliurus, a native hardwood species with multi-functional value, has been prioritized in China's National Reserve Forest Program. However, uncertainties related to its habitat stability and timber productivity due to climate change present challenges for effective conservation and afforestation planning aligned with national carbon neutrality targets. In this study, species distribution models were constructed using Random Forest (RF) and Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) based on verified field occurrences and climatic data and projected under current and future climate change scenarios, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. Both models showed high predictive performance (RF AUC = 0.970, MaxEnt AUC = 0.942), and identified temperature variability and water availability as key limiting factors. Climate suitability was significantly correlated with 20-year diameter growth (R 2 = 0.625) and wood basic density (R 2 = 0.463) across 27 natural populations. A stronger correlation was observed between annual growth and climate suitability of the preceding year (R² = 0.695), indicating a lag effect. By integrating trait-climate relationships, we projected spatial shifts in regions favorable for fast-growing, high-quality timber production. Future projections suggest a 49.2-60.0% decline in highly suitable habitats and timber forests by the 2050s, with marginal zones shifting northward and towards higher latitudes. This trait-integrated modeling framework provides a scientific basis for climate-resilient conservation and afforestation planning.
Keywords: Wheel wingnut, Climate Change, Trait-based model, radial growth, wood density, climate-lagged response
Received: 26 May 2025; Accepted: 14 Jul 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Zhang, Ye, Shang, Yang, Wang and Fang. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence: Shengzuo Fang, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing, China
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