Distribution patterns, conservation status and suitable habitat areas of highly valuable medicinal plants in China

Xiuli Gao¹Jiejing Gao²Sudhindra R Gadagkar^3,4,5Ruyu Yao^6,7Yiheng Li⁸Sanling Jin⁹He Bu¹⁰Jian He Wei⁶Bengang Zhang⁶Shengxiang YU^11,12,13*Zhirong Zheng^1*Yaodong Qi^6*

• ¹State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Regional Eco-Process and Function Assessment, Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing, China
• ²Guizhou Normal University School of Life Sciences, Guiyang, China
• ³Biomedical Sciences Program, College of Graduate Studies, Midwestern University, Arizona, United States
• ⁴College of Veterinary Medicine, Midwestern University, Arizona, United States
• ⁵Arizona College of Osteopathic Medicine, Midwestern University, Arizona, United States
• ⁶Key Laboratory of Bioactive Substances and Resources Utilization of Chinese Herbal Medicine, Ministry of Education & National Engineering Laboratory for Breeding of Endangered Medicinal Materials Institute of Medicinal Plant Development, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
• ⁷Kunming Institute of Botany Chinese Academy of Sciences, Kunming, China
• ⁸Chinese Academy of Sciences Research Centre for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Beijing, China
• ⁹China Agricultural University, Beijing, China
• ¹⁰Forestry and Grassland Bureau of Ewenke Banner,Hulunbuir City, Inner Mongolia, China
• ¹¹State Key Laboratory of Plant Diversity and Specialty Crops, Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
• ¹²University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
• ¹³China National Botanical Garden, Beijing, China

Medicinal plants represent a critical component of biodiversity. This study focuses on the most valuable species listed in the Red Data Book of Chinese Medicinal Plants (RCMPs) to analyze their distribution patterns, identify diversity hotspots, assess conservation status, and predict suitable habitats across China. Results reveal that RCMPs are primarily concentrated in southwestern China, particularly the Qilian Mountains, Qinling-Bashan Mountains, and southeastern Xizang. As the hotspot threshold increases, the conservation effectiveness of provincial nature reserves is surpassed by that of national reserves. Concurrently, overall effectiveness declines, with over 16.43% of hotspot grids (containing >91.48% of species) remaining unprotected, indicating persistent conservation gaps in southwestern China and Xinjiang. Predictive modeling suggests a potential decrease in RCMPs richness in southeastern and central China. Under the RCP 2.6 and 8.5 scenarios for 2070, approximately 42.99% and 57.01% of RCMPs are projected to experience habitat contraction and expansion, respectively. Based on these findings, we propose a comprehensive priority conservation framework to inform future protection planning and promote the long-term conservation and sustainable use of China's medicinal plants.