ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Plant Sci.
Sec. Functional Plant Ecology
Volume 16 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fpls.2025.1679735
This article is part of the Research TopicInteractive Effects of Climate Change and Human Activities on Plant Productivity in Grassland and Cropland EcosystemsView all 16 articles
Projected Hydroclimatic Changes in Xinjiang under Bias-Corrected CMIP6 Scenarios
Provisionally accepted
- 1Center for Human Settlements, Liaoning Normal University, Dalian, China
- 2Research Base of Urban Agglomeration in Central-South Liaoning of China Urban Agglomeration Research Base Alliance, Liaoning Normal University, Dalian, China
- 3School of Geography, Liaoning Normal University, Dalian, China
- 4Liaoning Research Base for Synergistic Development of Human Settlements and Talents, Dalian, China
- 5Beijing Municipal Climate Center, Beijing Meteorological Service, Beijing, China
- 6Meteorological Bureau of Dashiqiao, Yingkou, China
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Understanding future hydroclimatic variability in arid regions is essential for sustainable development and climate adaptation. This study utilizes bias-corrected CMIP6 daily climate projections based on the BCCAQ method and high-resolution 3DVAR-MF-XJ reanalysis data to investigate the spatiotemporal evolution of key meteorological variables and drought conditions in Xinjiang under three SSP scenarios (SSP126, SSP370, SSP585) during 2031–2060. Results reveal significant warming trends across all scenarios, with stronger increases under high-emission pathways (up to 0.76 °C/10a under SSP585), accompanied by enhanced potential evapotranspiration (PET) and widespread aridification. While precipitation shows an upward trend under SSP370 and SSP585, the warming-induced evaporative demand dominates, particularly in southern Xinjiang and the eastern basins. The SPEI index indicates an intensifying drought risk, with spatial patterns characterized by a "dry south–wet north" gradient and stronger basin aridification relative to mountainous regions. Moreover, this study highlights the physical mechanism linking temperature rise, enhanced PET, and intensified drought, providing robust empirical evidence for regional climate risk assessment and adaptation strategies in Central Asia. Despite methodological advantages, limitations associated with spatial resolution and structural uncertainty of GCMs persist, suggesting the need for integrating regional climate models (RCMs) and extreme event analyses in future research.
Keywords: CMIP6, BCCAQ, Xinjiang, Climate Change, drought, SPEI
Received: 05 Aug 2025; Accepted: 25 Sep 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Xu, Tian, Cong, Bai and Zhang. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence: Mengxin Bai, bmengxin@163.com
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