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ORIGINAL RESEARCH article

Front. Plant Sci.

Sec. Functional Plant Ecology

Volume 16 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fpls.2025.1691672

This article is part of the Research TopicInteractive Effects of Climate Change and Human Activities on Plant Productivity in Grassland and Cropland EcosystemsView all 18 articles

Vegetation dynamics and its driving force in the Qinghai Lake Basin, China

Provisionally accepted
  • 1Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China
  • 2Qinghai Normal University, Xining, China

The final, formatted version of the article will be published soon.

Qinghai Lake Basin is the largest endorheic basin in the northeastern part of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP). The vegetation dynamics are subject to dual pressures from climate change and human activi-ties. Previous studies have neglected the interactions among driving factors, as well as the impact of climate factors on vegetation under the regulatory role of topographic elements. The present study utilises MODIS-EVI data from 2001 to 2022 to estimate Fractional Vegetation cover (FVC) and to reveal the spatiotemporal dynamics of vegetation cover through trend analysis and other methods. Furthermore, it elucidates the effect of topographical factors on vegetation distribution. Finally, geographic detectors and the partial least squares structural equation model (PLS-SEM) were employed to quantify the impact intensity of driving factors (including climate, human activities, topography, and soil) and analyze their interactive effects and influence pathways on vegetation cover. The results sug-gested that (1) FVC in the Qinghai Lake Basin increased significantly (1.38×10⁻³/a); notably, low-grade FVC areas exhibiting high volatility. (2) The terrain effect displays clear differentiation charac-teristics. FVC peaks in the elevation range of 3500-3800 m, FVC dispersion increased with slope, and semishady/shady slopes dominated FVC distribution. The vegetation improvement type is concentrated on low-elevation, flat slopes and shady slopes, whereas the vegetation degradation type is distributed on middle-and low-elevation slopes and semipositive slopes. (3) Climatic factors primarily exert a direct positive influence on FVC. As far as climate factors are concerned, the effects of temperature and precipitation on FVC do not act independently, but act together through synergistic effects, with temperature showing a more significant driving effect. Topography primarily affects FVC indirectly by regulating water and heat conditions (temperature and precipitation). Each factor possesses an optimal range (elevation: 3400–4100 m, precipitation: 325–550 mm, temperature: −6 to 0°C). When changes in these driving factors exceed the optimal range, FVC is suppressed. On a temporal scale, climate change and human activities are the dominant factors influencing the FVC in the Qinghai Lake Basin. The positive effects of human factors on FVC have strengthened.

Keywords: Qinghai Lake Basin, Vegetation cover dynamics, Spatiotemporal variation characteristics, Driving factors, Partial least squares structural equation model

Received: 24 Aug 2025; Accepted: 01 Oct 2025.

Copyright: © 2025 Sun, Ding, Wang and E. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.

* Correspondence: Yuanyuan Ding, yuanyuanding@nuist.edu.cn

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