ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Plant Sci.
Sec. Plant Biophysics and Modeling
Volume 16 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fpls.2025.1698282
This article is part of the Research TopicIntegrative Biophysical Models to Uncover Fundamental Processes in Plant Growth, Development, and PhysiologyView all 11 articles
Compatible versus annual stand-growth models for thinned Chinese fir plantations
Provisionally accepted
- 1Research Institute of Forestry, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing, China
- 2Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, United States
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Reliable projections of stand survival and basal area (BA) after thinning require models that balance path consistency across variable step lengths with responsiveness to short-interval dynamics. Using data from a long-term Chinese fir (Cunninghamia lanceolata) thinning trial, we developed two stand-level systems—a Compatible Growth system and an Annual (periodic-annual) system—and estimated parameters using either consecutive growth pairs or all-pairs (overlapping) intervals. Models were validated with independent data and compared across short (2–4 yr), medium (6–8 yr), and long (≥10 yr) horizons.In unthinned stands, all-pairs estimation consistently improved accuracy. Annual models performed best at short horizons, while Compatible models outperformed at medium to long horizons for both survival and BA. In thinned stands, Annual formulations captured near-term survival most reliably (all-pairs short term; consecutive pairs at medium horizons), whereas short-term BA was best described by the Compatible model fitted with consecutive pairs. At medium horizons, the optimal choice depended on whether bias, dispersion, or composite fit was prioritized. These patterns reflect the expected trade-off between short-interval responsiveness (Annual) and path-consistent trajectory tracking (Compatible), moderated by data structure and time since treatment. For practice, we recommend selecting the estimation scheme (all-pairs for unthinned stands; consecutive pairs when short-term post-thinning BA is the priority), then choosing Annual or Compatible to match the decision horizon. Recalibration every ~6–8-years is advised. Applied in this way, the two approaches function as complementary tools for defensible thinning decisions and timber-yield forecasting in Chinese fir plantations.
Keywords: Stand survival, Stand basal area, annual growth, compatible growth model, thinned stands
Received: 03 Sep 2025; Accepted: 23 Oct 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Jiang, Cao, Chen, Zhang and Zhang. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence: Xiongqing Zhang, xqzhang85@caf.ac.cn
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