ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Plant Sci.
Sec. Functional Plant Ecology
Optimized MaxEnt Model Predicts Potential Suitable Habitats of Bidens bipinnata in China under Climate Change Scenarios
Provisionally accepted
- 1Anhui Province Key Laboratory of Pharmaceutical Technology and Application Anhui University of Chinese Medicine, Hefei, China, Hefei, China
- 2Anhui University of Chinese Medicine School of Pharmacy, Hefei, China
- 3State Key Laboratory of Phytochemistry and Plant Resources in West China, Kunming, China
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Bidens bipinnata, a traditional Chinese medicinal herb, faces threats from overharvesting and climate change. This study integrated species occurrence data with environmental variables (bioclimatic, soil, and topographic factors). Key variables were selected through correlation analysis and contribution assessment for MaxEnt modeling. The model was optimized by tuning feature combinations and regularization multipliers to achieve high predictive accuracy (AUC > 0.9). The optimized model simulated the potential distribution of suitable habitats under current climate conditions and future scenarios (2030s, 2050s, 2070s, 2090s) for SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5. Changes in suitable area, spatial patterns, and centroid migration were analyzed. The Jackknife test identified July precipitation (prec_07) and February mean temperature (tavg_02) as the dominant factors influencing distribution. Under current conditions, the total suitable area is approximately 1.96 million km2, primarily located in central, eastern, and southwestern China. Future projections indicate an overall expansion of suitable habitats, with a trend towards higher latitudes. The distribution centroid, currently in Hubei Province, fluctuates within Hubei under future scenarios, with a more pronounced shift under SSP5-8.5. This study elucidates the ecological drivers and future distribution dynamics of B. bipinnata, providing a scientific basis for its resource conservation, cultivation, and sustainable utilization
Keywords: Bidens bipinnata, Climate Change, Environmental Variables, MAXENT model, potential habitat prediction
Received: 10 Sep 2025; Accepted: 30 Nov 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Liu, Chen, Zhang, Luo, Hu and Liu. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence:
Jiang-Miao Hu
Shoujin Liu
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