ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Plant Sci.
Sec. Crop and Product Physiology
Evaluation of cotton production sustainability and water footprints in the oasis area of 1 southern Xinjiang under climate change
Tarim University, Aral, China
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Abstract
Abstract 15 The sharp increase in temperature and changes in other climatic variables have profoundly impacted 16 cotton growth, posing a significant threat to the stability of cotton yields in the oasis region of southern 17 Xinjiang. This study employed the AquaCrop model (Version 6.1) and CMIP6 SSP245BCC-CSM2-MR 18 future climate scenario data to comprehensively evaluate the impacts of different irrigation and mulching 19 methods on cotton water consumption, water footprints (blue and green water footprints), crop yields, and 20 their long-term stability and sustainability from 2021 to 2099. Increasing temperatures under future 21 climate change scenarios could significantly reduce cotton water consumption and water footprints, while 22 increase cotton yield, yield stability, sustainability, and overall irrigation water productivity (WP). 23 Compared to the baseline period of 1981–2020, cotton water consumption and water footprints in 24 2021–2060 and 2061–2099 are expected to decrease by 29.3% and 28.8%, and 41.6% and 42.6%, 25 respectively. Concurrently, cotton yield and WP are projected to experience an increase of 39.8% (50%) 26 and 49.2% (60.25%), respectively. A comprehensive evaluation based on Technique of Order Preference 27 by Similarity to Ideal Solution revealed that under the historical climate conditions from 1981–2020, an 28 irrigation quota of 495 mm for film mulching drip irrigation and 594 mm for filmless drip irrigation 29 exhibited favorable effects on cotton yields but resulted in increased irrigation water consumption. 30 However, under the future climate scenarios for the periods of 2021-2060 and 2061-2099, the elimination 31 of film mulching and a reduction in irrigation quotas are not expected to have a detrimental impact on the 32 sustainability and stability of cotton yields. This study provides valuable insights for enhancing the 33 resilience and productivity of cotton in response to climate change in southern Xinjiang and analogous 34 regions, which hold significant for policymakers to formulate strategies for the sustainable development 35 of agriculture and plan the allocation of water resources in the future.
Summary
Keywords
AquaCrop model, Climate Change, cotton yield, TOPSIS, water footprint
Received
16 January 2026
Accepted
19 February 2026
Copyright
© 2026 Wang, Fuchang and Wang. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
*Correspondence: Hongbo Wang; Xingpeng Wang
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